In the cryptocurrency market, Pengu's rise can be described as a jaw-dropping carnival, showing almost no signs of any pullback.
Analyzing the key factors behind its rise, I believe it mainly stems from the significant event that Pengu applied for an ETF. It has the potential to become a successful meme coin listed on an ETF alongside Doge. Looking back at the news at that time, the probability of Doge's ETF approval was over 90%, while Pengu's was only around 40%. Moreover, my inquiry through ChatGPT revealed that the institution submitting Pengu's ETF application was a relatively unknown small organization. Based on this information, I did not consider investing in Pengu at the time, believing its ETF would be difficult to pass.
However, the reality has exceeded my expectations. Pengu's price has skyrocketed, seemingly rising first without regard for whether the ETF could pass. More crucially, recently, multiple exchanges have changed their profile pictures to penguins, which undoubtedly added significant hype to Pengu, making its rise even more astonishing.
However, missed investment opportunities can only become regrets; after all, even if I had bought in at the time, I might not have held a significant position. In hindsight, my judgment on Pengu was indeed a mistake. Even if I had held a small position, I might have benefited from this market wave. However, in the investment market, misjudgments are inevitable.
Currently, there are two potential future trends for Pengu:
The first scenario is that Pengu's popularity continues to rise, community activity keeps increasing, and capital becomes increasingly robust, even miraculously passing the ETF approval. But frankly, I believe this possibility is relatively small. Besides the previously mentioned limited strength of the applicant institution and the low probability of passing, there is another important reason. In this bull market, the recognized meme leader, Pepe, has established its current position and market value thanks to multiple endorsements from Musk and Trump. Now, Pengu's market value is getting closer to Pepe's, and if we estimate Pengu's value based on Pepe's market cap, the recent surge in Pengu seems a bit excessive.
Based on the above analysis, I tend to lean towards the second possibility, that Pengu's ETF application is merely a pure hype tactic. It may also be aware that it cannot pass the ETF, but is using this application event to create hype and attract market attention. Once any unfavorable news comes from the US SEC, Pengu's price may collapse instantly, making it difficult to maintain the current price level.
Given this, I am looking for a suitable time to short Pengu with a small position to hedge against potential pullback risks in my held coins. When Ethereum's price rises to around 4000, if there are signs of failure to break through the upper boundary of the range, I will decisively implement this plan, striving to minimize risks and maximize returns in the complex cryptocurrency market.
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