First is narrative trading, second is address mining; the former emphasizes market intuition and sensitivity, while the latter focuses on meticulous examination and analysis of data.
These two are not only not in conflict but often need to be used together. They correspond to the two driving forces required for a token's rise: the combined efforts of the market and retail investors, and the pull from big players and whales.
Narrative trading, focusing on what kind of story this token tells, whether it can resonate with the market, and judging how far a token can go based on event background, innovation, popularity, and other factors.
For example, $Ani and $Gork are narratives born from new products under Musk, combining influence and fun, making them easy to spread; $Trump and $Pnut are driven by significant political-related events; last year’s AI hackathon market focuses on developer resumes and industry status; $Neiro and $Pochita are derivatives of the Dogecoin concept; $Fartcoin and $Useless emphasize crypto nihilism.
When market sentiment is good, retail enthusiasm is high, and there is ample liquidity, mere narrative can generate a market value of tens of millions or even higher for meme coins. However, when the market is poor, it must rely on manipulators controlling chips to pull the market, attracting attention through price increases; a typical example is the recent $Aura, which rose from a near-zero state to 230M in just a few days.
To capture this type of market manipulation, the most suitable method is address mining, analyzing whether there are clusters of addresses that are manipulating the market and their intent, or finding clues through previously accumulated address databases. The drawbacks of this method are that it is very time-consuming and labor-intensive, as manipulating addresses are often frequently changed, and even if traces are found, if the bottom chips are not firmly controlled, the manipulators can choose to abandon the market, leaving the initiative entirely in others' hands.
Whether it’s major KOLs on Twitter or leaders on the blockchain, most are primarily focused on narrative trading. This is not to say that address mining is ineffective; fundamentally, it is because it has reflexivity. Once a manipulating address is shared and more people are aware of it, it means that the resistance to manipulation increases, leading to abandonment or address changes. In contrast, address mining is a technical task that is only suitable for small-scale sharing, while narrative trading should reach as many people as possible, as consensus is the core of the narrative.
