Current situation: BTC oscillating within a range under the shadow of the trade war
Billion-dollar tariff duel escalates
The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on U.S. goods like Boeing and cars (effective in August), while the U.S. previously threatened a 50% tariff on the EU (Trump's May remarks triggered a 4% one-day drop in BTC, with over $500 million liquidated). This game intensifies global market uncertainty, leading funds toward safe-haven assets, with BTC recently at$117,800-$120,820oscillating within a range, with trading volume not significantly increasing (5-day average volume 4831, 10-day average volume 4568), indicating a strong market wait-and-see sentiment.History repeats? BTC’s 'safe-haven attribute' validated
Case review: In February 2025, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on the EU, BTC spiked to $82,256 (last November's new low), and the fear-greed index plummeted to 10 (extreme fear). However, the following month saw a rebound of over 40%, confirming that 'panic is an opportunity'.
Current logic: If the tariff war escalates, traditional market funds may flood into BTC to hedge risks; if it eases, the oscillation continues. The current fear-greed index has risen from 60 to 72 (greed), indicating some investors are positioning early.
My view: Three main logics for BTC as an 'unexpected winner'
Technical aspect: Death cross vs. golden pit game
Danger signal: The 1-hour chart shows the 50 moving average crossing below the 200 moving average forming a 'death cross', with MACD bearish momentum dominating, potentially dipping to support at $115,000 (liquidity dense zone).
Reversal opportunity: Significant volume support near $116,500, if this level holds, it may build a 'golden pit'. Historical data shows that BTC has a 70% chance of reversing after a similar narrow range oscillation.
Policy and funding: Hidden benefits
U.S. regulatory breakthrough: (CLARITY Act) clarifies BTC as a 'commodity' (regulated by CFTC), eliminating the risk of excessive SEC intervention, paving the way for institutional entry.
ETF funds continue to flow in: Bitcoin ETF net positions reached a record in July, whale address holdings rose to a 6-year high, with 14.5% of BTC moved off exchanges (long-term holding signal).
The 'two-way catalyst' of the tariff war
Short-term bearish: If the EU strongly retaliates in August, market panic could drive prices down to $115,000, liquidating leveraged longs.
Long-term bullish: Trump's 'Robin Hood-style' tax cuts (corporate tax down to 15%) will expand the fiscal deficit, weaken the dollar's credibility, and boost BTC demand against inflation.
Operational strategy: Keep a close eye on two key price points
Defense line: $120,820
A breakthrough confirms the bullish trend, target$130,000(Institutional FOMO chasing up).Lifeline: $116,500
Breaking this level triggers technical selling, downward testing$115,000, can place orders to accumulate in batches.
Summary: The trade war is a 'stress test machine' for BTC, but it is also an opportunity —
Short-term traders: Buy low and sell high between $116,500-$120,820, stop loss at $115,000.
Long-term investors: View below $115,000 as a golden pit, dollar-cost averaging.
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