Bitcoin shows signs of entering a strong bullish cycle based on On-chain data, as active supply quietly surges after a long period of silence.
On-chain expert Axel Adler Jr.'s data indicates that the amount of Bitcoin moving in the past 180 days has increased, signaling the potential for large transactions from holders, opening up a new price cycle.
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The ratio of active Bitcoin supply over the past 180 days is increasing, triggering a "waking up" of coin supply.
History shows that spikes in active supply are always accompanied by strong price increases of Bitcoin.
The market is still in the early stage of the distribution cycle as the active supply ratio has only slightly increased, opening the possibility of pushing prices above $120,000.
How significant is the increase in Bitcoin Supply?
Axel Adler Jr., a certified On-chain analysis expert, confirms that the ratio of Bitcoin supply traded in the past 180 days is increasing significantly. This indicates that many long-term Bitcoins are beginning to be moved.
This data often reflects long-term holders starting to sell or reallocate assets as prices rise. The increase in active supply has previously been evident during peak moments in major cryptocurrency cycles.
Previously, there were two times when this active supply ratio surged, first rising to 20% when Bitcoin reached around $70,000 in spring 2024, and the second hitting 18% in December 2024 when the price first crossed the psychological threshold of $100,000.
Bitcoin's '% Supply Active has seen two notable spikes: 20% in spring 2024 and 18% in December 2024 – two moments when Bitcoin's price reached new milestones.
Axel Adler Jr., Crypto Analyst, July 2025
Why is the active supply trend important for the Bitcoin market?
History has shown that periods of spikes in active supply often coincide with significant price corrections or increases of Bitcoin. For example, in spring 2024, a 20% increase in active supply was accompanied by price surging around $70,000.
By the end of 2024, when Bitcoin crosses the psychological threshold of $100,000, this ratio will also rise to 18%, indicating trading activity from large holders and profit distribution.
However, in June 2025, although Bitcoin's price stabilizes around $100,000, the active supply ratio has only slightly increased, about +2.4% in the past 30 days, indicating that many holders still maintain long-term holding strategies without a massive sell-off.
How is Bitcoin currently in the initial distribution phase?
Axel Adler Jr. notes that the slight increase in active supply emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market is still in the early stages of the distribution cycle as Bitcoin has not fully broken above $120,000.
If Bitcoin continues to hold steady and surpass this threshold, the active supply ratio could increase from 8%-10%, approaching the 18%-20% levels achieved during previous major price increases.
Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers around $118,176 with a market capitalization of approximately $2.35 trillion, ready for further fluctuations.
"A slight increase in active supply indicates that Bitcoin has just begun to enter the distribution phase, paving the way for potential growth beyond $120,000."
Axel Adler Jr., On-chain Expert, July 2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin Supply Active?
Bitcoin Supply Active is the percentage of supply traded in the past 180 days, reflecting the activity level of the coin after a long holding period.
Why is an increase in active supply important?
The increase in active supply shows that long-term holders tend to sell or distribute assets, directly affecting Bitcoin's price.
How much can Bitcoin rise based on the current active supply?
On-chain data shows that active supply could push Bitcoin above $120,000 if the upward trend continues and trading ranges expand.
How does the current active supply trend compare to previous cycles?
Compared to past bullish cycles, the active supply ratio in summer 2025 has only seen a slight increase, indicating that the market has not yet entered a strong distribution phase.
How to track Bitcoin's active supply signal?
On-chain analysis platforms like CryptoQuant provide Supply Active charts to help investors orient their trading strategies based on real data.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/chi-so-on-chain-du-bao-ban-thao/
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