Is the bull market on a break? Last night Bitcoin surged to the 120,000 mark, unfortunately, it couldn’t hold, but from the trend, this is definitely not the end of the bull market. August is coming soon, and the market is starting to speculate on the expectation of 'September Fed rate cuts'. Personally, I judge that the market in August and September will enter a truly crazy phase. I have said this more than once; let's see if the fans can keep up.
ETH has had a slight pullback these days, and many people are starting to panic.
But actually, trends don't just stop abruptly; they are definitely built from waves and time.
I have been saying these days: this round of the market rhythm is 'first big coins fly, then small coins'. Only when small coins take off completely and retail sentiment peaks can it possibly be the top of this round.
From the market perspective, if there is no new low, don't rush to declare that a bear market is coming. The key support for ETH is at 3650; if it effectively breaks below, we can look at 3470. However, as long as it holds, after a few days of consolidation at the current position, it might actually be a better entry point.
Looking again, the on-chain signals for ETH are complex, but the ETF is the real driving force.
Although ETH has regained the 3000 mark, the on-chain data is actually quite subtle:
The amount of ETH transferred to exchanges is close to the level when it surged to 4000 in 2023, indicating that someone is cashing out at high positions.
But large holders are also synchronously accumulating, especially the inflow data for ETH ETFs is very impressive.
For example, BlackRock's $ETHA trading volume has surged, becoming the main driving force behind this wave of ETH rise, whereas BTC's ETF has been much quieter. So whether ETH can lead the altcoin wave depends on the subsequent capital outflow.
The rotation of small coins has begun to show: DeFi and low market cap coins are the first to board.
In the past two days, the enthusiasm for small cap coins has clearly risen. WLD, #SPK, SLP and other coins have performed well, especially #WLD leading the gains. Meanwhile, #W and $RESOLV have both provided nearly 40% gains.
Notably, #PENGU surged especially hard, after dropping from 0.032, it has pulled back nearly 50%. Currently, its market cap has reached 2.785 billion USD, surpassing BONK, becoming the number one in the Solana Meme sector!
Strong institutional trading, plans to apply for an NFT ETF, IP commercialization... these factors may have allowed PENGU to raise the 'leading' banner in this Meme rotation.
Let's take another look at the Meme track:
In this round, I am holding DOGE and PEPE, planning to hold them for a while. But to be honest, the #DOGE trend has disappointed me a bit: after the breakout, it didn’t surge but instead oscillated repeatedly in the resistance area, unlike ETH and SOL which broke out and left the range, appearing particularly weak.
In contrast, #WIF is currently the strongest, repeatedly washing before approaching the 1.3 pressure level, which is also the Fibonacci 0.236 level. Once it stabilizes, 3 USD isn't a dream.
If you want to engage with Meme this time, it's still recommended to focus on breakthroughs and control.
ONDO makes a brilliant debut: interest rate cut expectations + ETF speculation.
Today $ONDO also performed brilliantly, surging 5.3% to set a new historical high, with a market cap reaching 11.4 billion USD. The main reason is that 21Shares submitted the S-1 application for the ONDO ETF to the SEC.
Don't forget, this kind of 'small but refined' ETF concept coins has a very direct speculation logic—plus ONDO is one of the few cryptocurrencies with traditional financial linkage.
Tokens related to the RWA track can also be watched, as these are generally brought along for a wave.
Finally, let's follow up on a few potential altcoins! Worth holding onto:
Today the platform coin #BNB strongly broke through 800, setting a new high, and will continue to push up! This wave of mainstream coins is breaking new highs one after another, $SOL will not be absent! You can still buy around 200, and a pullback is an opportunity. You could buy near 190 for a small breakout~
$CORE: The daily chart shows a rounded bottom pattern, which is close to the neckline. Once it breaks through, it will enter an accelerated rising channel, a very classic bullish pattern, suitable for building positions at low levels and waiting for an explosion.
$XRP : A large transfer valued at 700 million USD has attracted market attention. The current key support is in the 3.2~3.4 USD range; as long as it holds, it will be the starting point for further upward movement.
Next is the emotional amplification period in the middle of the bull market. Remember this saying: let the big coins fly first, then it’s the turn of the small coins; when retail investors start to celebrate, that’s the moment you should stay calm.
