Written by: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
As we enter 2025, only two types of KOLs remain active in the crypto market: one type makes profits or incurs losses through contract trading in volatile markets; the other adjusts direction flexibly in a market of changing trends and numerous directions, playing whatever is hot. Crypto KOL Chuan Mu (@xiaomucrypto) has attracted considerable market attention again in recent months through a series of crypto concept stock trading operations after proving his contract trading capability through activities like the $500 challenge.
Although there are some doubts in the market about his 'using fans as exit liquidity', from his publicly shared operations of crypto concept stocks, the relevant entry and exit timing still holds certain reference value. Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the three major investment targets mentioned and traded by Chuan Mu in recent months — Circle (CRCL), Guotai Junan International, and SBET — as case studies for readers' reference.
Chuan Mu's SBET operation review: from refusing to enter the market to profiting upon exit
On May 27, Sharplink Gaming officially announced financing and issuance to build ETH reserves, and subsequently, SBET once surged over $100. Chuan Mu, as a keen trader, also quickly noticed this stock and thus experienced a quite tumultuous trading journey.
The ups and downs of the 'fourth entry': from missing out on selling to profiting over 1 million.
On May 28, Chuan Mu posted, 'This SBET cannot be bought, as 69.1 million shares were issued in a private placement, and the market value will change from 30 million to over 3 billion on the 29th... Many people are confused.' His words indicated a fair amount of caution regarding 'Sharplink Gaming's increase in market value through stock issuance', but soon he changed his mind and decisively entered the 'ETH version Strategy' and other crypto concept stocks.
On June 11, around 10 PM, as Sharplink completed a $425 million financing and gradually bought ETH, SBET's stock price gradually stabilized, and Chuan Mu no longer hesitated, buying 10,000 shares of SBET at an average price of about $39.5. Notably, he also bought 20,000 shares of dfdv at an average price of $27.3 and 20,000 shares of qubt at an average price of $19.1; additionally, he sold 15,000 shares of CRCL at an average price of $113.
Chuan Mu's published buying record.
Just an hour and a half later, he quickly sold part of his position: selling 9,000 shares of SBET at an average price of $44.5, making a profit of $45,540 from a single transaction.
Chuan Mu's selling records.
On June 13, SBET's after-hours price once fell over 60%, and Chuan Mu somewhat angrily posted: 'There are really not many good people in the crypto project parties, the purer the crypto project, the more TN the danger. SBET directly fell 60% after hours. These scumbags are messing with xx's ETH microstrategy. Moreover, NM ETH co-founders also dragged a bunch of crypto institutions to invest. They are all scumbags.'
On June 17, Chuan Mu commented on a certain blogger's post, stating that SBET may be associated with Dovey (Wan Hui), the founder of Primitive Capital, and he dared not touch it again.
But soon, as Sharplink continued to buy ETH, it briefly became the publicly traded company with the largest ETH holdings, and the market responded promptly again —
On July 9, the price of SBET rebounded to around $15.35, with a 24-hour increase of over 21%. Chuan Mu posted, 'Today I thought of something that might be interesting, I was too biased before. The microstrategy of ETH may have financing advantages compared to BTC because the ETH obtained from staking can pay interest. Financing that can support higher interest is continuous and does not fear being unable to pay interest. SBET may have a very large imagination; I was biased before.' He later posted that he re-entered SBET at an average price of $15.3; subsequently, he bought another 40,000 shares of SBET at an average price of $17.1.
On July 10, he posted that he had sold 50,000 shares of SBET at an average price of $18.6, leaving 100,000 shares, and claimed, 'I plan to hold the remaining shares. If SBET drops, I will buy back 50,000 shares.' On July 11, he posted again expressing optimism about SBET, stating, 'If ETH breaks $3000, SBET is very likely to soar to $28.'
According to the tweet information around 1 PM on July 11, Chuan Mu held about 154,000 shares of SBET, with a floating profit of about $232,000; that evening, he indicated that he had cleared SBET at an average price of $21.5, which, based on 154,000 shares, resulted in a profit of about $465,000 from a single transaction.
Chuan Mu's holding information on July 11.
Chuan Mu's second clearing SBET screenshot.
But soon, the continuously rising price confirmed Chuan Mu's speculation of missing out, as he once again bought 100,000 shares of SBET at an average price of $23.8 on July 14. On July 15, this transaction had a floating profit of about $100,000; ultimately, he cleared SBET for the third time at an average price of $25.75, profiting about $195,000 from a single transaction.
But soon, he faced another 'regret moment' — on July 16, he once again bought 130,000 shares of SBET at around $28.3. Soon, SBET surged to nearly $44 before the market opened on July 17. Chuan Mu wrote that it was 'crazy', and on the other hand, perhaps he began his own position swap operation — switching from SBET to BTCS.
Of course, after Sharplink Gaming announced plans to raise $5 billion to continue increasing its ETH holdings, SBET remained a market focus. Chuan Mu's most recent analysis of SBET was a tweet on July 20, where he stated, 'The most conservative estimate for SBET is that after the $5 billion issuance, its market value will be equivalent to the ETH holdings at a ratio of 1/1 (then its stock price would be) $13. A more ideal scenario would give a 1.5 times valuation, which would drop to $19.4. A more optimistic scenario would double it, making it drop to $25; then, due to continuous ETH purchases, it would rise again.'
From publicly available information, conservatively estimated, Chuan Mu's profit from a single stock SBET is over $800,000 to $1 million.
Chuan Mu's Guotai Junan operation review: buying 4 million shares, making a staggering profit of 3 million HKD in 2 days.
On June 24, Guotai Junan International was approved for a license upgrade to provide virtual asset trading services. The next day, Chuan Mu bravely took action and performed a textbook-like 'top escape' operation. It must be said that in this case, Chuan Mu accurately grasped the 'market sentiment trading rules'. Although it does not have much regularity and reproducible value, it can still serve as a trading case study.
Quick and decisive Hong Kong stock trading: only took 2 days.
On June 25, Chuan Mu bought 4 million shares of Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) in two transactions at an average price of HKD 2.45.
Chuan Mu's post screenshot.
Driven by market sentiment, Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) saw its price rise sharply, and Chuan Mu sold 3 million shares at HKD 3, leaving 1 million shares. According to his post, this alone made a profit of about 2.5 million HKD.
Chuan Mu's selling record screenshot.
Additionally, it is worth mentioning that as early as June 25, based on the logic of cryptocurrency brokerage, Chuan Mu bought 40,000 shares of Robinhood (HOOD) at $84.4. Although that night the stock price fell to around $82.1, resulting in a small loss, the stock price later surged past $100 to set a new high after Robinhood launched its US stock tokenization trading feature. It is unknown if Chuan Mu still held that stock at that time.
Ultimately, according to his own post, the profit from a single stock at Guotai Junan International was about 3 million HKD.
Chuan Mu's CRCL operation review: over a million dollars gained from 6 transactions
At the beginning of June, Circle (CRCL), which strongly landed on the US stock market with the concept of 'the first stock of stablecoins', completed a terrifying surge from around $30 to nearly $300 in just over ten days. During this process, Chuan Mu navigated the US stock market with bold and meticulous operations, earning millions of dollars in profit.
First transaction: profit of nearly $800,000.
On June 6, Chuan Mu tearfully chased high, buying 30,000 shares of CRCL at an average price of $98; ultimately, in the early hours of June 7, he successfully sold 27,000 shares at $119, making a profit of about $700,000.
Chuan Mu's selling record screenshot
Just 2 hours later, Chuan Mu once again bought back 20,000 shares of CRCL at an average price of $113.6, and on June 9, he sold 18,000 shares at an average price of $118, making a single profit of about $80,000, while still holding about 10,000 shares of CRCL. On that day, CRCL surged nearly 30%, with the stock price skyrocketing to around $128.
Second transaction: 30,000 shares of CRCL, profit exceeding $160,000.
On June 9, Chuan Mu once again bought 30,000 shares of CRCL at an average cost of $111.
On the morning of June 10, he sold 14,000 shares at an average price of $118; in the afternoon, as CRCL's price broke through to $119, he again sold 10,000 shares at $118, leaving about 6,000 shares.
Chuan Mu's second selling transaction screenshot.
From then on, in the second transaction, Chuan Mu accumulated a profit of about $168,000.
Third transaction: profit of nearly $350,000.
At 9 PM on June 10, Chuan Mu once again bought 30,000 shares of CRCL at an average price of $108. On June 11, he reduced his holdings by selling 15,000 shares of CRCL at $113 (mentioned earlier), with a single profit of about $75,000.
On June 11, he posted that he still held 25,000 shares of CRCL, and based on the stock price of $118 at that time, his cumulative floating profit was about $405,000.
Chuan Mu's floating profit screenshot.
On June 16, Chuan Mu's CRCL position increased again to 30,000 shares, and his average holding price also rose to about $133.5, with a floating profit of about $208,000 at that time.
Chuan Mu's floating profit screenshot.
On that day, he sold 20,000 shares at an average price of $142, initially estimating his profit to be nearly $170,000; the last 10,000 shares were sold at an average price of $143.5, profiting about $100,000.
Fourth transaction: profit of about $90,000.
On June 18, Chuan Mu posted again, stating that the wave of CRCL was diminishing, reducing his position from 40,000 shares to 18,000 shares. At that time, CRCL's price had skyrocketed from around $140 to about $172, and Chuan Mu's position had a floating profit of about $70,000. On that day, he sold all 18,000 shares of CRCL at an average price of $173, estimating a profit of about $90,000.
Chuan Mu's selling screenshot.
Fifth transaction: affected by Cathie Wood's dumping, a loss of about $15,000.
On June 25, Chuan Mu once again bought 15,000 shares of CRCL at an average price of $226.5, but soon, due to news that Cathie Wood sold $100 million worth of Circle stock, Chuan Mu cleared his position at $225.5.
The original intention was to gamble on a market rebound, but unfortunately, due to the influence of 'big shots dumping stocks', he could only cut losses. In this regard, Chuan Mu's situation is remarkably similar to ours.
Chuan Mu's clearing tweet screenshot.
Sixth transaction: another profit of about $270,000.
On July 15, after nearly 20 days, Chuan Mu made a comeback, once again buying 15,000 shares of CRCL at an average price of $202.
Buying screenshot.
The next day, CRCL suddenly crashed to around $191, and Chuan Mu cried helplessly again: 'I was buried alive.'
But soon, CRCL rose again to $209, and Chuan Mu also came back to life. Subsequently, CRCL's price surged over 10%, rising to around $218.
Ultimately, Chuan Mu chose to clear the last 5,000 shares of CRCL again at the $220 level. This transaction is estimated to have a cumulative profit of about $270,000.
From then on, across 6 transactions, Chuan Mu's total profit from CRCL alone was around $1.65 million.
Conclusion: If you don't have wisdom, you need to follow, and even more so, you need to run.
Overall, Chuan Mu's timing for buying and selling crypto concept stocks is relatively accurate. If one has a certain foundation in stock trading and investment, this can serve as a reference point. As the saying goes, 'If you don't have wisdom, you need to follow.'
However, it is worth noting that there are two issues with KOLs sharing information and opinions: 1. Sometimes, due to the speed of information dissemination or the lag in market sentiment response, their information can lead their followers to become 'greater fools', especially in trading illiquid market targets, so participation should be cautious; 2. They often follow the crowd, like Cathie Wood and well-known institutions, and may sometimes be at the end of the information distribution chain, leading to situations of buying high and selling low. It is advisable to enhance one's own ability to discern information and make investment judgments without blindly believing everything.
After all, most of the time, investing is a game of 'running fast'.