Bitcoin's attempt to break $120,000 has faced obstacles, currently fluctuating around $109,200; Ethereum surged strongly last night, once soaring to $3,750! On this turbulent night, a total of 131,470 people in the market encountered liquidation, with a total liquidation amount reaching $389 million! Many originally hoped to see a 'waterfall crash' at dawn, but the market did not meet expectations. Whenever there is a hint of decline, the mindset of expecting a 'halving crash' really needs to change—otherwise, more losses await you! Following the ideas provided by Sponge yesterday, I opened a long position on $BTC, currently up about $2,500; it's recommended to take profits promptly and look for new opportunities.
BTC
Yesterday's prediction has been validated; this week Bitcoin has chosen to break upwards as expected.
After two weeks of sideways consolidation, BTC has once again exerted force to impact the $120,000 mark. Currently, the key resistance level is at $120,500; if it can effectively break through, it will open up further upward space, targeting $125,000, where decent short opportunities may arise.
Short-term long order hanging area: 117,450, 116,850 / 116,666, 116,350, 115,850
It is recommended to set profit-taking areas at $118,800 - $119,600. I have been emphasizing these strategies for two weeks.
The medium to long-term view remains unchanged: currently in a healthy correction phase, expected to continue upward after adjustment, targeting $130,600 at the weekly level.
ETH
ETH bulls continue, but the market has entered a high-level consolidation phase, making strong breakthroughs difficult in the short term. Currently in the top consolidation range, if new highs continue to be created, it could trigger multi-cycle top divergence, leading to technical correction risks. The main pressure zone at the daily level still lies between $3,740–$4,110. The key support for the short-term bull structure has shifted up to $3,640; as long as this position is not effectively broken, the bullish trend remains intact.
If Ethereum breaks $3,828 again, it is expected to break through the $4,000 barrier. Key support to watch below is $3,600, with an expected pullback range of $3,636–$3,616, still an optimal area for low buy layout. Currently in the fluctuation range of $3,850–$3,600, it's recommended not to chase highs or sell lows; there are trading opportunities for both bulls and bears within the range, so patience is required for direction selection. For beginners, just focus on maintaining a low long strategy; shorting in the short term requires high technical skills and can be temporarily avoided.
Altcoins
The current market trend is already very clear; let the large coins fly first, then it will be the turn of the small coins. When it's the turn of the small coins to soar and retail sentiment is high, that will be the peak of this round.
Tier 1: Bitcoin (BTC)
Combining attributes of US stocks and gold, with strong policy support (ETF, national strategic reserves, crypto treasury).
Historically unique, with unlimited upward potential, possibly surpassing fiat currency systems.
Tier 2: Ethereum (ETH)
Combining characteristics of crypto and tech stocks, with complete ETFs, reserves, and treasuries; policy support is only second to Bitcoin.
The Trump family project WLFI has a high holding ratio, Genius stablecoin bill is favorable, with foundational platforms in DeFi, RWA, and stablecoins.
In the coming years, the scale of US stablecoins going on-chain is enormous, with Ethereum as the core infrastructure, far exceeding other public chains.
Tier 3: SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, BNB
Soon to receive or has received ETF support; SOL spot ETF has traded, but its attractiveness is lower than ETH.
All supported by crypto treasury, limited policy space, each with its own characteristics:
SOL: Comprehensive development in Meme, DeFi, AI, DePIN, RWA; a hexagonal warrior.
XRP: Seizing Swift business, strong political and business resources, stable control by the whale.
LTC: Based on the consensus of 'Bitcoin gold, Litecoin silver', with a 15-year history that overshadows most altcoins.
DOGE: The ancestor of Meme, backed by Musk, supported for payments by Tesla.
BNB: Binance's value capture tool, skyrocketing in price, tied to the Trump family project.
Tier 4: Other ETF and crypto treasury projects
Coins like ADA, AVAX, HBAR, APT, SUI, etc., have applied for ETFs; HYPE, FET, etc. have received treasury support.
Mainstream capital is visible, with symbolic significance greater than actual capital inflow, showing potential for sector market.
Tier 4 and a half: DeFi and RWA leading coins
Coins like AAVE, LINK, UNI, LDO, ONDO, etc., benefit from on-chain capital growth after the Genius bill.
On-chain trading, financial management, and investment demand are strong, the value of protocols will increase, and the potential for RWA assets going on-chain is large.
Tier 5: Top Meme, AI; secondary leader DeFi, RWA, public chain
Maintaining market share with the development of the crypto market, strong community stickiness and development capability, good on-site liquidity.
However, the funding entry is narrow, mainstream capital has little attention, and the potential is lower than the previous tiers.
Tier 6: Old CEX coins
Loss of development team, no substantial innovation, poor liquidity, prone to sharp declines during market downturns.
The upward momentum is weaker than ETH and SOL, prices are mainly maintained by market makers, only remaining symbolic; it's recommended to exit early.
