BlockBeats news, on July 23, Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle predicted that the U.S. basic 'counterpart' tariff rate would be raised from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%—this move could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs in its 'initial observations,' Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 core inflation forecast from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%.
Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over the next 2-3 years. He added that tariffs would reduce this year's GDP growth rate by 1 percentage point, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs has accordingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. (Jin Shi)