With the Federal Reserve signaling interest rate cuts and a continuously favorable cryptocurrency policy, market liquidity has fully rebounded, leading to a surge in crypto assets. Bitcoin has strongly broken through 120,000 USD, setting a new historical high; Ethereum is approaching 4000 USD, reaching its highest point in nearly six months. Altcoin micro-strategies continue to spread, combined with ETF and macro policy resonance, market sentiment has rapidly heated up, and FOMO sentiment is spreading across the board.
After experiencing this round of fierce upward movement, what will be the follow-up trend of BTC and ETH? Let's take a look at the latest views from top traders in the market.
Macroeconomic Analysis Faction
@CryptoHayes
ETH is gradually breaking away from the sideways state, becoming the core infrastructure for asset tokenization and stablecoin expansion on Wall Street. With the rising demand for stablecoins such as USDC and USDT, as well as the continuous deployment of real-world assets (RWA) on Ethereum, the usage value and on-chain activity of ETH have significantly rebounded. Meanwhile, the recovery in risk appetite and the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are jointly driving liquidity back, accelerating ETH's upward pace. The structural benefits for ETH are also being transmitted to its ecosystem, with DeFi protocols experiencing a rebound in trading and staking demand, while the NFT sector's activity is also recovering, revitalizing the entire Ethereum ecosystem.
Technical Analysis Faction
@Cato_CryptoM
From the technical perspective of BTC, the one-hour price has continuously risen close to the breakthrough range limit, with a clear divergence appearing in the one-hour range; the four-hour price is at the resistance position of the upper boundary of the range, showing strong momentum, with no divergence in the range; the daily price has once again broken through MA7, maintaining an optimistic and strong trend. Support-wise, short-term reference is 117,000 for the four-hour support, with key support referencing 113,700. Expand the support range to guard against potential large fluctuations tonight. Resistance-wise, short-term resistance is at 119,000, with key resistance at the previous high of 121,000; if this position breaks and holds again, one might consider aiming for a new high.
@biupa
The second round of Bitcoin's rise may be starting. Currently, Bitcoin has been in a sideways position for eight days since its peak, and there are signs of a breakout at the end of the triangular convergence. After breaking through the upper resistance of 121,000 and 123,200, it could go between 126,000-130,000. If Bitcoin breaks through, market attention may refocus on Bitcoin, while Ethereum will enter a consolidation phase, and altcoins may continue to rise alongside Bitcoin (non-E series). Therefore, attention could be given to SOL-related cryptocurrencies.
@market_beggar
The current location of the URPD gap is approximately between 111K and 115K, and in terms of the price chart, it roughly falls around 112K to 115K. As shown in the figure, if the current small-level oscillation range is broken downwards, the gap area may not effectively stop the decline due to weak support. Therefore, when judging the first support level, I personally will reference 112K.
The logic behind 112K is simple: it is the top of the consolidation zone from May 9 to July 9, and on July 10, the price strongly broke through that area. We can temporarily assume that this consolidation zone is the area where the main capital is gradually accumulating.
The second position worth noting is 104,059, which corresponds to the average cost of current short-term holders (STH-RP), also located within the previously mentioned consolidation zone.
Data Analysis Faction
@Murphychen888
What truly represents the overall market sentiment are the more active investors who hold BTC; when they sell, the profit margins are not that high, mostly reasonable between 20%-100%. We can see from Figure 2 that every time this group realizes profits densely, it is when market sentiment is the hottest. Currently, the data shows a larger gap compared to the previous two rounds of market trends.
Therefore, although we have seen a high level of realized profits after BTC broke the historical high of 120,000 USD, if we break it down, the selling behavior of individual ancient whales has a significant impact on this data. However, the overall sentiment is not at its FOMO peak yet, or in other words, the market pressure is not that heavy.
@CryptoPainter_XETH Currently, there is a small liquidation zone appearing at 3500; if the price has sustained retracement momentum this week, then 3500 is the point to get on board. It has been previously stated that the main driving force behind this strong bullish trend for ETH comes from spot buy orders, likely related to cryptocurrency stock subscriptions. The emergence of this model will bring a large demand for spot. However, the accompanying question is whether these cryptocurrencies and stocks can obtain continuous financing like MicroStrategy? If it is merely to raise coin and stock prices and then selectively increase stock issuance for cashing out, then ETH will lose continuous spot buying pressure and start oscillating around this position. Once oscillation begins, the liquidity in the futures market will dominate price behavior... Therefore, in addition to focusing on the support at 3500 for opportunistic long trades, we should also pay attention to the stock prices of companies that finance through ETH; whether their behavior is sustainable and whether they can hold onto the spot will determine the final height of this ETH cycle! Overall, the trend structure of ETH remains a strong bullish trend; therefore, even when looking for a retracement, it is not recommended to short, but rather to wait for opportunities to go long.
@AxelAdlerJr
As of today, at a price of 117,000 USD, Bitcoin is in a growth range between the median price for investors (92,000 USD) and the speculative alarm level (139,000 USD). This indicates that buying activity is still supported by market participants: as long as the price stays above their comfort zone, they are willing to hold or increase their positions. Meanwhile, we have not yet entered an excessively optimistic phase; without serious overheating risks, Bitcoin still has room for further increases to 139,000 USD.
