📈 Context and recent catalysts
Convincing technical breakout: $XRP broke a symmetrical triangle that had been forming for years, with an increase of more than 5% in one day and intense volume (158M tokens) at its breakout moment (CoinDesk).
Current price and daily range: Trading around US $3.55–3.60 after reaching an intraday high of US $3.64, now holding near US $3.55 (CoinDesk, Barron's).
Institutional momentum: Launch of XRP futures by CME in May, and strong institutional flows have been recorded, bolstered by legal clarity and recent regulatory advances in the U.S. like the GENIUS Act and the Clarity Act (Reuters).
High probability of spot ETF: Analysts estimate a 86% to 95% probability of approval in Q4 2025; its approval could open a significant window for institutional investment (Finger Lakes 1).
🎯 Potential scenarios
Base scenario (+70 % → ~US $6)
Breakout of the symmetrical triangle and technical patterns like flag or ascending triangle project a technical target of approximately US $6 in the short term (AInvest, AInvest).
Moderate scenario (~US $5)
Experts on stocks (Bitget, Motley Fool, Nasdaq) see a more conservative target of US $5 by the end of 2025, equivalent to a +40–50 % from current levels (etf.com).
Optimistic scenario (US $7–10+)
If spot ETFs are approved and there is solid institutional adoption, some projections (expert analysts and crypto influencers) range from US $7 to double-digit ranges (US $10–26) in bullish cycles (Finance Magnates).
Technical correction scenario (~US $3.40)
If the support at US $3.55–3.60 fails, it could drop to US $3.40 or even retrace to US $3.46 before resuming its bullish trend (CoinDesk, AInvest, AInvest).
🧭 Strategic recommendations
Hold if you're in: With the breakout confirmed and strong flows, the outlook remains bullish towards US $5–6.
Take partial profits between US $5 and US $6: This is a logical zone of technical resistance and it is suggested to secure profits.
Add to pullbacks at US $3.55–3.60: This range has proven to be support after the breakout; it provides a good entry point if it corrects.
Stop-loss below US $3.46: Losing that level could favor larger declines, so it would be wise to protect the position.
Watch for advances in spot ETFs and regulation: The SEC's vote on Ripple's appeal on July 24 could be the key trigger for an approval in Q4 (Finger Lakes 1).
✅ Summary
XRP presents a very promising outlook:
Base scenario: +70% target around US $6.
Conservative scenario: around US $5.
Optimistic scenario: US $7–10 or more, if several institutional catalysts are met.
However, the key in the short term is to maintain support at US $3.55–3.60 and confirm flows of #ETFs . Careful risk management could allow for capitalizing on the trend while maintaining a disciplined posture.