After reaching an all-time high, Bitcoin's price has slightly corrected and entered a consolidation phase. Although the relative strength index (RSI) of the spot market has cooled from overheated levels, and the cumulative volume difference (CVD) indicator has significantly turned negative, reflecting active selling pressure in the market, spot trading volume remains high, showing active market participation, and demand is quite resilient, not significantly retreating due to the price drop.
In the derivatives market, the number of open futures contracts has surged to high levels, with funding rates also rising, proving that speculative positions are increasing. However, the sharp reversal of the perpetual contract CVD reveals large-scale profit-taking behavior, which may have led to seller exhaustion, making the market more susceptible to short-term fluctuations. Meanwhile, the narrowing of the volatility spread in the options market and the negative skew phenomenon reflect that while investors are overall bullish, their attitude has become cautious, and they are beginning to hedge against downside risks.
The movements of institutional funds are also worth noting. The Bitcoin spot ETF listed in the U.S. has recorded significant growth in both net inflows and trading volume, indicating strong institutional demand. On-chain activity shows divergence: the number of daily active addresses and fee income has declined, which may mean that retail or trading demand is cooling; on the other hand, the adjusted transfer volume has surged sharply, suggesting that large participants may be engaging in strategic capital reallocation.
The current market presents a healthy but fragile balance state. Although capital flows remain strong and speculative participation is moderately rising, long-term holders are still the dominant force in the market. Although various profitability indicators have retreated from their highs, indicating that some investors are beginning to lock in profits, market sentiment remains in an optimistic range.
Signs of seller exhaustion are emerging, and the market may be ready for the next round of increases. Key cryptocurrencies to watch: XRP, SOL, ADA, SUI, LINK, AVAX, LTC, DOT (these are hopeful for ETF approval, and institutions and companies have begun to transfer reserves into these coins). Additionally, Ethereum is approaching 4000, SOL is stabilizing at 200, and for DEFI, public chains, and Ethereum/SOL systems, look for opportunities to accumulate during corrections.
