The first question, what is the main narrative of the entire cryptocurrency circle in this round?
BTC 15000 ➡️ 120000
The entire atypical bull market has lasted for two and a half years. Why do we say this is an atypical bull market? Because this is a bull market that erupted during a tightening cycle.
Excluding the overall oversold rebound of the initial bull (after the big bear in 2022) and the various narratives that were later disproved (L2, modularization, etc.), and excluding the super MEME season that arose during the bull due to overall liquidity shortages, from an overall perspective, there is still not much exciting main narrative within the crypto circle. This round of the bull market can generally be defined as a 'capital bull' led by the United States after the assets changed hands in the 20-21 season.
The characteristic of this bull market is that altcoins will rebound sharply in every round of small-level trend markets, while Bitcoin continues to rise steadily.
The second question, Ethereum.
ETH (1300 ➡️ 3800)
Following the line of the first question, let's look at Ethereum; before looking at Ethereum, let's first deconstruct the various stages of Bitcoin's bull market: 15476 ➡️ 30000, which experienced a rebound after a deep bear market. But what happened after 30000? To the current 120000? Expectations of interest rate cuts? Expectations of ETF and capital inflows after the ETF is approved?
If we connect the entire Bitcoin trend after it broke through 30,000 in October 2023, we will have the answer.
Is this entire range (202310 ➡️ now) peaceful? Are there any bearish factors in between? Issues with Japanese interest rates, the war, the favorable conditions after Trump took office, the tariff war... but did these delay Bitcoin's rise? Not only did they not delay it, but it also reached new highs. I want to say this is the top strategy of the 'Musk' types.
Why do we need to deconstruct Bitcoin first? Because Bitcoin is the template that Ethereum has already come out with; what we can see now is that capital is beginning to replicate Bitcoin's path on Ethereum.
Why did Ethereum rise so quickly from 1300 to 3800, not giving people a chance to react? Apart from some initial consolidation, it has basically been closely following small-level technical indicators since then.
Because this road is familiar, too familiar; Bitcoin has just finished its run.
The third question: the next line of thought.
Following a clear line of thought, we can draw the following conclusions:
1. Altcoins are just companions; at least until there is enough exciting endogenous narrative in the crypto world, altcoins can only rebound from overselling; do you think it's easy to pick 3-5 coins with a 10,000% increase among tens of thousands of coins? Or is it easier to make a 100% profit on Bitcoin or Ethereum?
If you want to gamble on the returns of the former, why not check if your position has outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum's increases?
2. We need to give Ethereum enough room for imagination. Although this question is simple, it is not easy to execute. After all, those chasing highs are often doomed; our trading system and our technical system are inherently resistant to such emotion-driven and capital-led increases.
3. Technical indicators in a bull market, especially small-level technical indicators, are ineffective; this is also why many technical traders have missed out or exited midway in this round.
Overbought? Divergence? Wait for a pullback? The result of waiting for a pullback is that you get off the train and find it hard to get back on; because a bull market is always about emotions, not about any technique, because a bull market is irrational.
In the end: a bull market is a great retreat.
We cannot predict the overall market top, and predicting the tops of individual coins is also very difficult. What we can do is reasonably plan our positions and strategies to cope with the market trends that we cannot accurately predict.
Taking profits is not wrong, chasing highs is not wrong, what's wrong is chasing high after taking profits, and not stopping losses after chasing highs. It is the repeated harvesting after being eroded by crazy emotions without stopping losses.
After the offense, the first thing to think about is always defense; but defense without offense is not called defense, it's called losing money; achieving a balance between offense and defense is a top-level skill.
I want to say, don’t think too much, and don’t want too much; in a simple market, just earn the money that you should earn within your ability!
The current market is mixed; many people want to achieve tenfold or hundredfold returns in this round of the market but don't know how to start.
1. Position management is strict, mainstream coins are for safety, and altcoins are for value addition. Every short-term altcoin position should exit the principal at the first opportunity after the market doubles; only then can the remaining zero-cost position potentially ignore short-term fluctuations and hold for a high exit in a bull market.
2. Every time, the medium to long-term coins will remind to increase or decrease positions!
4: Currently, position management is strict, mainstream coins are for safety, and altcoins are for value addition. Every short-term altcoin position should exit the principal at the first opportunity after the market doubles; only then can the remaining zero-cost position potentially ignore short-term fluctuations and aim for a high exit in a bull market.
5. I won't randomly recommend air coins or worthless altcoins; we are already experiencing the dividend period of the market, and we must seize this opportunity to cross classes. Positioning should be well-planned; everyone doesn't have unlimited bullets. If planned reasonably, your bullets will go farther and become more numerous. In short, let's seize this round's craziest bull market together!
Old Bo only does real trading; the team still has positions available.