Arthur's Crypto Prediction Analysis: A Contradiction of Policy Data with 250,000 BTC and 5,000 ETH!
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year, but before August, he believes it will consolidate. If the U.S. Treasury's funding is unfavorable, it may dip to $90,000 to $95,000; if the funding is meaningless, it will hover around $100,000.
Regarding $ETH , a potential rise to $5,000 was proposed in May based on ecological advantages, but the current price is only around $2,600, with an actual increase exceeding 50%. Short-term expectations may be overextended, and if the ecology does not meet expectations, a correction may occur. His view of linking the old Special Operations economic policy with crypto credit growth should be viewed rationally; the total market cap of stablecoins is only $150 billion, far below the rumored $2 trillion demand for treasury bonds, and the causal relationship between treasury bond purchases and crypto increases lacks direct evidence, being more driven by policy expectations and emotional speculation.
In my view, Hayes' analysis combines policy and sentiment, but the precision of the target price and time frame is insufficient. Retail investors can refer to the long-term logic of value supported by ecological deployment, but should be wary of short-term policy volatility risks.
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