The market is like a battlefield, BTC is poised for a showdown before the key level today. Are you ready?
Fundamental aspect: The 'secret war' between institutions and policies.
Today's news presents a 'tale of two extremes':
Institutional 'bottom fishing' and 'diversion' coexist: Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to accumulate through ETFs, but the SOL ETF approval is entering its final stage.
If approved, it may divert some funds.
Policy 'double-edged sword': The US plans to relax 401(k) retirement fund investments in cryptocurrencies, which is beneficial in the long term but viewed by the market as 'expectations being fulfilled' in the short term; the UK's FCA new stablecoin regulations, while improving compliance, may squeeze the survival space of small and medium projects, necessitating caution against the risk of 'bad money driving out good money.'
Technical aspect: 'Silent period' before the key level.
Today's 4-hour K-line for BTC shows that the price is fluctuating narrowly in the range of $117,000 - $119,000, presenting 'calm before the storm.' The three major technical signals suggest a choice of short-term direction:
Cloud cover pattern: Yesterday's K-line formed a bearish reversal signal, suggesting a decline in buying power, and sellers may take the opportunity to counterattack. The moving average system is 'flattening out': MA10 and MA30 maintain a bullish arrangement, but have shifted from steep ascent to horizontal flattening, indicating weakened upward momentum. MACD 'underwater dead cross': The DIF line continues to be below the DEA line, and the negative value of the histogram expands. Bulls need to break through the resistance level of $123,000 to regain initiative.
Personal opinion: Walking a tightrope at a high altitude, waiting for a catalyst.
The current BTC trend is akin to 'walking a tightrope at a high altitude.' The technical aspect is weak, but the fundamentals are solid. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a catalyst. Referring to historical patterns, BTC also experienced several weeks of fluctuations before breaking through $60,000 in 2021, eventually starting a major upward wave with the help of the ETF. If it can break through the resistance of $123,000, it may reenact the 'no pain, no gain' scenario.
During the period of 117,000-119,000, there has been back-and-forth fluctuations, always unable to break through the highest point. The reason is that neither side has a significant impact, keeping it at the horizontal line.
Operational strategy: Short-term 'high sell, low buy,' long-term 'watch the play and choose positions.'
Short-term players: Operate within the range of $117,800 - $123,000, with a stop-loss set at $116,000. If it breaks through $123,000, you can add to your position; if it falls below $117,800, then pay attention to the secondary opportunity near $110,000.
Long-term holders: Gradually position, with a focus on the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of July and the SOL ETF approval results. If both release positive news, BTC may attempt to reach $150,000; if a 'black swan' event occurs, caution is needed for a short-term pullback to $100,000.
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