500,000 ETH Unstaking: The Market Storm Behind Institutions
Recently, the news of over 500,000 ETH queued for unstaking has sparked considerable discussion, with many people worried that this could pose a risk of a market crash. So, who is behind the large-scale unstaking? What does this phenomenon really mean? Here, I would like to share my views. The conclusion is that such large-scale unstaking is likely driven by a single institution, which will be analyzed in detail below.
Looking back at the history of Ethereum's transition to POS, it is clear that large-scale unstaking is not a first-time occurrence. In the past, similar situations occurred, such as when Celsius went bankrupt in January of last year. At that time, Celsius urgently needed funds and suddenly unstaked over 500,000 ETH, causing the entire network of verification nodes to queue for processing, blocking for a full 7 days. This time, a similar scale of unstaking has caused an 8-day queue, inevitably raising questions: who is facing bankruptcy or needs to withdraw a large amount? Is it Sun Zhengyi? (If it's you, remember to blink👀)
However, if we look only at the situation of the staking queue, this time's situation does not need to trigger panic like last time. When Celsius unstaked last year, there was almost no new capital entering staking, so the amount unstaked this time had almost no hedge. This time’s situation is relatively more complex because, prior to the unstaking, there were several days when the amount entering staking was almost equal to the amount unstaked, which played a certain hedging role. Therefore, from the perspective of the queue situation, the market does not need to panic like last time.
Overall, although large-scale unstaking may cause short-term market fluctuations, this time's situation is closer to an adjustment rather than a complete market crash. As long as the market can maintain relative balance and hedging, the short-term risks should be controllable, and investors need not overreact. Of course, closely monitoring large capital flows and the dynamics of staking remains an important reference for making reasonable judgments about market trends.
