After reaching an all-time high, Bitcoin's price has slightly retraced and entered consolidation. Although the relative strength index (RSI) of the spot market has cooled from overheating levels, and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicator has significantly turned negative, reflecting active selling pressure in the market, the spot trading volume remains high, indicating active market participation, and demand shows considerable resilience, not significantly retreating due to price declines.
In the derivatives market, the open interest in futures contracts has surged to a high range, and the funding rate has also risen simultaneously, indicating that speculative positions are increasing. However, the sharp reversal of the perpetual contract CVD reveals large-scale profit-taking behavior, which may have led to seller exhaustion, making the market more prone to short-term volatility. Meanwhile, the narrowing volatility spread in the options market and the negative skew phenomenon reflect that while investors are generally bullish, their attitude has turned cautious, and they have begun to hedge against downside risks.
The movements of institutional capital are equally noteworthy; the Bitcoin spot ETF listed in the United States has recorded significant growth in both net inflows and trading volume, demonstrating strong institutional demand. On-chain activity shows divergence: daily active addresses and transaction fee revenue have declined, which may indicate that retail or trading demand is cooling; however, on the other hand, the adjusted transfer volume has surged sharply, suggesting that large participants may be engaging in strategic capital reallocation.
The current market presents a healthy but fragile balance; despite strong capital flows and a moderate increase in speculative participation, long-term holders remain the dominant force in the market. Although various profit indicators have retreated from high levels, indicating that some investors are beginning to lock in profits, market sentiment remains in an optimistic range.
Currently, signs of seller exhaustion are emerging, and the market may be ready for the next round of upward movement; however, if profitability continues to weaken, along with cooling market sentiment and normalization of positions, the trend may shift to a broader consolidation phase.
"MICA Daily | Glassnode Analysis: Signs of Seller Exhaustion Emerge, Market May Be Ready for Next Round of Upward Movement" was first published on (Blockcast).
