Bonnie Blockchain interviews Michael Terpin: What is the Bitcoin four-season theory?
Michael Terpin, known as the 'crypto father' by prominent foreign media (CNBC) and author of the book (Bitcoin Supercycle), is currently the CEO and founder of Transform Ventures. He was interviewed by Taiwanese cryptocurrency YouTuber 'Bonnie Blockchain' during the Bitcoin Conference 2025, noting that the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) will fluctuate according to the four-season theory.
From the historical trend, the Bitcoin four-season theory is very accurate, with each cycle's peak higher than the previous cycle.
Terpin emphasized that Satoshi Nakamoto mentioned in the (Bitcoin whitepaper) that as long as the purchasing volume of Bitcoin in the market exceeds the mining output, the price will rise.
The key to determining Bitcoin's seasons lies in the fixed halving events. After each halving, the price of Bitcoin usually levels off, which is the shortest season, about four to seven months, while summer usually starts on the day it exceeds the previous bull market peak.
However, some believe that after the influx of institutional investors, the Bitcoin cycle has significantly changed. For example, the amount of Bitcoin accumulated by BlackRock in one year has exceeded the total amount purchased by MicroStrategy (now named Strategy) over the past five years.
He believes that the current Bitcoin market is in summer (Bitcoin Summer), and the entry of institutions has not changed the four-season cycle theory; it only affects macro-level variables since the mathematical logic behind Bitcoin's scarcity remains unchanged.
Further reading:
The Bitcoin whitepaper was born 16 years ago! Why is our understanding of cryptocurrency still so fragmented? What is Bitcoin halving? Time cycle? Understanding the impact of Bitcoin halving all at once.
What is the Bitcoin supercycle? Is it coming soon?
Terpin explains that the Bitcoin supercycle refers to a period of over five years driven by fundamental narrative transformation that generates excess profits.
He compares Bitcoin's supercycle to the three supercycles in the history of commodities, believing that the current third commodity supercycle is being initiated due to the weakening of the dollar (high debt).
When will Bitcoin encounter a supercycle? Terpin points out one of the core factors: the technology maturity curve (Gartner Hype Cycle).
From the perspective of the technology maturity curve, he analyzes that currently only 5% of the global population holds Bitcoin, and it usually takes 15 to 20 years to transition from early adoption to mass adoption, allowing a technology to accumulate enough momentum to attract the general public. Ultimately, the technology penetration rate will reach 70%-90%.
Currently, cryptocurrency payments seem to be a noteworthy application. Terpin believes that using stablecoins for payments has transaction fee advantages, and it is expected that at the latest, within 5 years, crypto payments will see large-scale adoption.
Further reading:
Finally realized the dream! Trump officially signs the GENIUS Act, the first stablecoin regulatory law in the US.
Terpin also stated that from the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model perspective, it is already more scarce than gold. Unlike gold, Bitcoin's daily production is fixed and decreases with the halving mechanism. Miners tend to hold coins (Hodling), making the actual supply extremely limited.
He pointed out that in the past, the stock-to-flow ratio of gold was about 1% to 1.5% per year, sometimes reaching 2%; currently, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate is about 0.8%, while gold is around 1.5%. With the halving mechanism approaching, Bitcoin's inflation rate will gradually decrease approximately every four years, and it is estimated that by 2100 to 2140, only 2.5 Bitcoins will be produced globally every four years.
Source: Bonnie Blockchain Crypto father Michael Terpin's interview with Bonnie Blockchain
Source: Bonnie Blockchain Crypto father Michael Terpin's interview with Bonnie Blockchain
Terpin predicts: Bitcoin will surge to $1 million in 2033.
With Trump serving as President of the United States and the House of Representatives passing three key crypto bills, this year's cryptocurrency market seems clearer.
Terpin boldly predicts that Bitcoin will rise to about $500,000 in 2029, and will naturally rise to $1 million in 2033, pointing out that Bitcoin has the potential to surpass the market value of gold, as it is viewed by the younger generation as the gold of the new era.
In the long term, he believes that if you accumulate one Bitcoin within ten years, its value could reach as high as $20 million in 20 to 30 years.
But it is not always a good time to buy Bitcoin; he does not recommend buying at the peak of this bull market cycle. Terpin suggests that if you want to achieve rewards beyond simply holding Bitcoin, the key is to accurately grasp the market cycle, sell most of your holdings near the top, and buy back at the bottom.
'Is the Bitcoin supercycle coming? Crypto father breaks down the four-season theory: Looking at 1 million in 8 years' This article was first published in 'Crypto City'
