The 'K-line dances between Fibonacci levels, hidden in the narrow door from 198.35 to 196 is the password for SOL's breakthrough tonight!'

Current market essence is a replay of the flash crash at 12 o'clock.

Technical trigger: After a morning spike to 204.7, the 1-hour chart shows three consecutive bearish candles piercing through the key pressure support level of 199.25 (marked in yellow in the chart), directly triggering bullish stop-loss orders.

Volume anomaly: Trading volume surged by 300% during the crash period, a typical 'whale sell-off' tactic (on-chain monitoring shows a certain institutional address concentratedly sold 50,000 SOL).

News-driven backlash

Ecological bearishness: Solana's top DeFi protocol Kamino was attacked by white hats (though there were no losses), market panic spreads;

Market drag: Bitcoin's sharp drop to 11612800 dragged the entire market down;

Leverage liquidation: 120 million USD in SOL long positions across the network were forcibly liquidated in the 196~198 range.



Technical breakdown: Life and death hinge on 196, breaking that level is the abyss!

Bullish Lifeline 196: Today's 17 tests have not broken, known as the 'iron bottom defense line';
38.2% Fibonacci support 194.4: Once lost, panic selling could push to 191 (50% retracement level).

Bearish stronghold 199.25: Four times resistance met during the rebound, becoming a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears;
Death cross of moving averages: The yellow-green dual lines (MA20/50) form 'death pressure' at 200 USD.

Tycoon’s analysis of the future market

If it holds above 196: It will continue the 'declining volume + rebound increase' pattern (as shown on the right side of the chart), likely relying on 38.2% (194.39) to form a double bottom, testing the resistance zone of 198.35.

If volume breaks 196: It will trigger programmatic sell orders (intensely traded area marked in yellow in the chart), quickly testing 194.39 (38.2%), but the 178-180 range has monthly level strong support (100% Fibonacci + historical chip concentration area).

Core conflict point: Currently, bulls and bears are repeatedly tugging at 196, while the Bollinger Bands are closing to the extreme, with energy for a change accumulating - direction choice is more important than point guessing!

‘Focus on the triangle area! When the Bollinger Band width drops below 0.5%, SOL will either surge or plunge. Friends, prepare your ammunition, but don't prematurely gamble at the 196-198 Mahjong table - wait for the main force to reveal their cards first!’

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