Three-line Narrative: News + Technical + Logic
News: Trump's Tariff Shockwave
Emergency Policy: Imposing tariffs of 15%-50% on multiple countries (official announcement on July 24)
Impact on the Crypto Market Chain:
Potential Good News: Intensified global asset risk-averse demand, some funds may flow into the crypto market (referencing the 22% weekly rise of BTC during the 2019 tariff war)
Realistic Suppression: US stock futures plummet causing liquidity panic, ETH faces short-term selling pressure
Technical Aspect: Asphyxiating oscillation signal
Bollinger Band Extreme Convergence: The distance between the upper band (3705.64) and lower band (3551.31) compresses to 154 points (reaching the 7-day minimum), a change is imminent
MACD Underflow: Although DIF (-19.63) is still below the zero axis, the histogram value has turned positive for 3 consecutive hours (+12.83), indicating a weakening bearish momentum
Volume Alert: Actual trading volume shrinks to 90% of the estimated value, proving that the main force is holding back before the tariffs take effect
Tycoon Opinion: Consolidation and buildup, waiting for a breakout
The 3610 support has not been effectively tested (today's lowest is 3624.75), the psychological significance of this position is greater than the actual confrontation
Combining tariff events and US market data (initial jobless claims at 20:30 tonight), expect European session to continue with low-volume fluctuations, and US market volatility to surge
Key Observation Points for Trend Change: A volume breakout above 3650 or a volume drop below 3620
Tycoon Follow-up Trend Prediction
Neutral Scenario (60% Probability): Maintain narrow fluctuations between 3620-3650 until the US market, waiting for data to ignite the trend
Bullish Scenario (30%): If US economic data weakens the dollar, there is hope to break through the 3700 resistance level (requires trading volume to increase to over 150,000)
Bearish Scenario (10%): Tariff panic triggers a liquidity crisis, probing the 3570-3551 range (Bollinger lower band)
While everyone is debating the impact of tariffs, the smart ones are closely watching tonight's 20:30 initial claims data—if the announced value > 240,000, ETH may stage a 'dollar plunge, crypto soar' scenario! Discuss in the comments, Tycoon decodes data secrets in real-time!
On the eve of turmoil in the US market, my ETH long-short dual-kill strategy has been unlocked! Stay tuned for real-time updates, only the ruthless will feast!
#ETH #关税贸易战
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