Recently, the crypto market has heated up again, with multiple on-chain and macro data corroborating the potential for a new round of trends. Bitcoin is at the end of its technical structure, with the market's attention on the impending breakout point; meanwhile, Ethereum is significantly strengthening due to ETF capital inflows, and the rotation effect of altcoins is rapidly spreading to mainstream assets like Dogecoin and Polkadot.
Bitcoin (BTC): Triangle consolidation approaches breakout, targeting $140,000
Bitcoin has maintained a sideways trend around $120,200 since its rebound from $95,000, forming a symmetrical triangle structure on the 4-hour chart. The technical indicators show that the market is entering a compression phase before a breakout, and volatility release may be imminent. The key 20/50/100/200 EMA are all below the price, with the current 20 EMA support level at $118,600, providing dynamic support for bulls.
On-chain data also maintains a bullish pattern. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues to rise, indicating strong buying power; open contracts have risen to $87.75 billion, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.0255, suggesting a market bias towards bullish direction. The options market is even more extreme, with daily trading volume exceeding $110 billion, and the top traders' long-to-short ratio reaching 1.87, reflecting strong bullish sentiment.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has completed a reverse head and shoulders pattern, with target ranges looking at $135,000 to $140,000. Meanwhile, the momentum from ETFs cannot be ignored, as only BlackRock and Fidelity have injected over $5 billion into the market in the past two weeks, demonstrating institutional confidence in long-term Bitcoin allocation.
Although Bitcoin's dominance has decreased to 61.7%, and funds are temporarily flowing into altcoins, this risk-on environment has historically favored BTC's continued momentum. If it can break through $122,000 and accompanied by whale accumulation, Bitcoin is likely to further challenge $125,000 or even higher.
Ethereum (ETH): Breakthrough at $3,651, ETF inflows hit a new historical high
Ethereum has surged 8.4% in the past 24 hours, with prices breaking through to $3,651, driven by capital inflows from spot Ethereum ETFs. Statistics show that the single-day ETF inflow on July 16 reached $726 million, setting a new historical high.
Institutional capital is making a significant entry and becoming the core of the rally: BlackRock invested nearly $500 million in its ETHA fund in a single day, while Fidelity added over $100 million, with others like Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Invesco also increasing their holdings. As of now, total inflows into Ethereum ETFs have reached $7.1 billion, reflecting growing institutional recognition of Ethereum as a core asset allocation.
The technical indicators show that Ethereum has broken through a key upward channel, with MACD and RSI simultaneously issuing buy signals. The market generally expects it to test the $4,000 mark in the short term. Additionally, Ethereum maintains a TVL (Total Value Locked) of $74 billion in the DeFi space, remaining one of the stickiest public chains in the on-chain ecosystem, attracting significant long-term capital positioning.
Dogecoin (DOGE): After a mild adjustment, it may rise again.
Dogecoin rose to $0.24 earlier this week but has now pulled back to the $0.18-$0.20 range. This adjustment is seen as a normal cooling phase after the previous rapid rise. Over the past 30 days, this cryptocurrency has gained as much as 45%, significantly outperforming most mainstream assets.
The daily technical structure shows that DOGE is forming a typical 'double bottom' pattern; if it can effectively break through $0.25, technical analysts have set the subsequent target range at $0.48 to $1.
On-chain data shows that whale addresses are continuously increasing their holdings, with stable growth in positions, and long-term holders have not shown significant selling. Coupled with increasing clarity in market regulation, DOGE, as a representative of high Beta altcoins, still holds mid-term potential, especially favored by retail and high-risk investors.
Polkadot (DOT): Ecological breakthrough, attracting long-term capital layout
Polkadot is currently trading between $4.20 and $4.35, with a gain of over 20% in the last 7 days. This trend is backed by the continuous expansion of its ecosystem and the iterative upgrades of its underlying technology. The recently released Elastic Scaling and JAM protocols are viewed as significant technical breakthroughs, significantly enhancing DOT's scalability and cross-chain asset capabilities.
In the context of the rising demand for Web3 interoperability, DOT is gradually becoming a focus for institutional investors as a foundational infrastructure. Development activity remains high, with continuous on-chain upgrades, and it is expected that once it breaks through $4.50, it may challenge $6 or even $10.
Although DOT lacks the hype factor compared to meme coins, its value logic is being recognized by long-term funds, making it a typical 'technology-driven asset'.
Summary: Structural market rotation continues, watch for volatility explosion windows.
As Bitcoin approaches the end of its structure, and with the warming link between Ethereum and ETF funds, the current crypto market has entered a critical observation period. Capital is gradually flowing out of Bitcoin to Ethereum and altcoins, showing a high Beta rotation pattern. Overall, the market remains in a medium-to-long-term upward trend, and short-term consolidation and fluctuations provide new entry opportunities.
