What are the key events that have recently impacted the crypto market, and what signals are behind this stage of the bull market?
In the past two months, the entire crypto market's heat has been reignited. Bitcoin and Ethereum have taken turns performing, and on-chain projects are also bustling. However, compared to past bull markets, this round of market activity hides many new stories.
Brother Lei will help you sort through the recent core news that has most impacted the crypto space and see what key signals they reveal.
1️⃣ Ethereum ETF has landed, and institutional buying is here.
In the past period, the US SEC has officially approved multiple Ethereum spot ETF applications, which is of great significance. Don't be fooled by those who say to sell when favorable news lands; what ETFs truly bring is compliant institutional buying and long-term capital pools.
Previously, the Bitcoin spot ETF had brought Bitcoin into traditional finance; now it's Ethereum's turn.
Wall Street now has a legal channel to build large positions in ETH.
The public chain staking mechanism continues to lock up the circulating supply.
The DeFi ecosystem and staking annual returns have directly pushed ETH into the position of a 'digital treasury bond'.
This implies that Ethereum is being treated by institutions as a digital version of high-quality assets for allocation, which is completely different from the past reliance on sentiment and retail-driven price movements.
2️⃣ The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations are fluctuating, affecting the sentiment of traditional funds.
Apart from its own fundamentals, macroeconomics remains a decisive variable for the crypto space.
After the recent Federal Reserve meeting, the market's expectations for a rate cut within the year have fluctuated again. Strong employment data and inflation not fully stabilized have caused the dollar index to strengthen temporarily, putting pressure on risk assets.
Many people have overlooked a detail.
The current trends in US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are actually highly correlated.
Once the US dollar strengthens, capital will flow out of high-volatility assets into safe havens.
Conversely, if interest rate cut expectations rise again, BTC and ETH will immediately become safe havens and appreciation tools for capital.
Thus, the recent volatility is not simply the result of whales harvesting profits; rather, it's the macro sentiment continuously impacting market dynamics.
3️⃣ Exchanges are constantly taking action, with leading players competing for new licenses.
Besides the market and macro factors, the recent actions of exchanges are also worth mentioning.
Binance has obtained a new license in Europe and is beginning to cooperate with financial institutions in various countries, preparing to promote more compliant matching services for 'spot + ETF + derivatives'.
OKX has been active as well, expanding into the Asian market while launching AI trading tools, aiming to provide quantitative and smart investment advisory services to more novice users.
Don't underestimate these changes; they represent a major trend towards normalization across the entire industry. The era of wild, unrestrained growth is truly becoming a thing of the past.
4️⃣ Hong Kong and Singapore continue to implement a combination of easing and tightening.
Asia is also taking a dual approach.
Hong Kong has clearly accelerated the opening of retail spot trading in the past six months, reigniting Asian capital's interest in compliant public chains and exchanges.
Singapore, on the other hand, is strengthening regulation of stablecoin and DeFi liquidity pools, making it harder for high leverage and marginal models to thrive as they did before.
In other words, future funds will be more concentrated in leading projects and major exchanges; small retail investors wanting to make quick money will have to chase hot topics or participate in airdrops, making it harder to trade in waves.
5️⃣ BTC on-chain data shows that activity has returned.
From an on-chain perspective, the number of active Bitcoin addresses, inscriptions trading Ordinals, and L2 ecosystems have all become active again, with TVL on-chain locked amounts reaching new highs for the period.
What does this mean? Whether the market can go far depends fundamentally on having on-chain liquidity, active addresses, on-chain yields, and new users entering the market; only then will the bull market not be just a bubble.
From recent data, at least for BTC, on-chain liquidity has already begun to return.
Summary by Brother Lei
This bull market is very different from the past; previously, it relied on hot speculation and pure retail sentiment to drive prices, but now we have ETFs, Wall Street funds, global policy games, and layers of compliance licenses and major exchanges to provide support.
But don't forget, macro factors, regulation, and on-chain security are all potential black swans that could erupt at any moment.
Therefore, this market trend represents new opportunities and also tests everyone's strategy and execution.
Understand the trend, manage your positions well, recognize risks, and don't let emotions drive your decisions.
Only those who can adapt will have the opportunity to survive the new round of reshuffling in the crypto space and earn their share of the dividends.