Yesterday, I temporarily said goodbye to the noise of Twitter, took a moment to reflect, and conducted an in-depth review and contemplation on the recent fluctuations in the crypto market. Now, I share this with you all:

1. The main narrative in crypto: A capital-led atypical bull market

#BTC# skyrocketed from 15000 to 120000; this atypical bull market spanning two and a half years has emerged strongly during the tightening cycle.

Excluding many disproof narratives derived from the super rebound after the deep bear market at the beginning of 2022 (such as L2, modularization, etc.), as well as the super MEME season caused by liquidity shortages during the bull, from a macro perspective, there is a lack of exciting mainline narratives within the crypto circle. Essentially, this is a 'capital bull' dominated by American capital after the market pattern shift in 2020-2021.

The characteristics of this bull market are distinct: Altcoins rebound significantly from every small-level trend, while Bitcoin steadily rises, showcasing its regal demeanor.

2. Ethereum: The capital replication logic under the Bitcoin template

#ETH# soared from 1300 to 3800, and the logic behind its rapid rise is worth delving into.

First, let's deconstruct the stages of the Bitcoin bull market: The rise from 15476 to 30000 is a rebound after a deep bear market, while the rise from 30000 to 120000 is the result of multiple factors such as interest rate cut expectations, ETF expectations, and capital inflow after approval.

Looking back at the trend after Bitcoin broke 30,000 in October 2023, despite facing headwinds such as Japan's interest rate issues, geopolitical conflicts, and policy changes after Trump's election, Bitcoin still reached new highs. This is undoubtedly a top-level strategy carefully laid out by the 'Mikesayers'.

Bitcoin serves as a ready template for Ethereum, and there are signs of capital replicating Bitcoin's path on Ethereum. Ethereum's rapid rise from 1300 to 3800, aside from a brief consolidation at the beginning, essentially follows small-level technical indicators upward, simply because Bitcoin has just walked this path, and capital is familiar with it.

3. Bull market strategy: Balance offense and defense, earn money within your understanding.

Based on the analysis above, the following key conclusions are drawn:

Altcoin positioning: Before a strong internal narrative emerges in the crypto circle, altcoins are merely accompanying roles in the super rebound. Selecting 3-5 coins from tens of thousands that can achieve a 10000% increase is far more challenging than obtaining a 100% return on Bitcoin or Ethereum. If you want to gamble on the high returns of altcoins, it might be wise to first examine whether your positions are outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The imagined space for Ethereum: While theoretically simple to give Ethereum enough imaginative space, in practice, due to the natural exclusion of trading systems and technical systems, chasing highs is not easy.

Technical indicators fail: In a bull market, especially small-scale technical indicators often fail. This is also the reason why many technical traders missed out or exited midway in this round of market. Signals like overbought and divergence under the dominance of bull market sentiment often mean missing the opportunity to get on board when waiting for a pullback, as the essence of a bull market is an irrational emotional feast.

A bull market is a great retreat. We can hardly predict the overall market top or the top of individual coins accurately; we can only reasonably plan our positions and strategies to cope with unpredictable market trends. Taking profits and chasing highs are not inherently wrong, but blindly chasing after taking profits, not knowing when to cut losses after chasing highs, and being repeatedly harvested due to emotional erosion are mistakes.

As the market experts say: After the offense, the primary consideration is defense; however, defense without offense is truly a loss. Finding a balance between offense and defense is the top-tier skill in investing. Don't be greedy; earn within your capability in simple market conditions.

Cryptocurrency rotation cycle: Insight into the opportunity, layout the future 🌐

With #BTC breaking through a new high of 123K, the market has opened a new round of sector rotation. #ETH breaking 3800 and #SOL rising 190% indicates the arrival of a new rotation cycle in the crypto world.

Currently, nearly 57 cryptocurrencies have outperformed BTC, and BTC's market share has dropped to 60%. Apart from the cryptocurrencies mentioned above, what else is worth paying attention to?

Mainstream altcoins:

ADA, XRP, $DOT

Track hot coins

DeFi track:

UNI, AAVE, $CAKE

Layer 2 track:

ARB, OP, $POL

Meme track:

DOGE, PEPE, $BONK

RWA track:

XLM, LINK, $HBAR

AI track:

TAO, NEAR

Small-cap potential coins: Market cap less than 100 million USD, highly speculative, with potential and risk coexisting.

Brothers, which token do you think will start next? Feel free to share your insights in the comments! 👇