Geopolitical upheaval! Trump is about to negotiate with Iran, and Bitcoin shows an "M-top" signal? The $115,000 support level is crucial!
Brothers in the crypto world! The news that has stirred the entire network today is none other than "The Trump administration is willing to restart negotiations with Iran!" The stunning reversal in geopolitics, combined with Bitcoin's daily chart showing an "M-top" death signal? Are you ready for this capital market tug-of-war?
1. Geopolitics hits the pause button, but risk-averse sentiment is still brewing!
According to the latest news, Trump announced after the NATO summit: the U.S. will hold high-level talks with Iran next week, possibly signing a nuclear agreement! This statement has temporarily doused the Middle East powder keg—both sides have announced a ceasefire. Although Iran's nuclear facilities have been severely damaged, Trump emphasized that "military action has destroyed its nuclear capabilities," while Iran hinted at possibly seeking sanctions relief through diplomatic compromise.
The market reaction is immediate:
U.S. stocks surge across the board: The S&P 500 index recovers the 6000-point mark, and Tesla soars 8% in a single day;
Oil prices fall: The risk of blockade in the Strait of Hormuz decreases, putting short-term pressure on oil prices;
2. The K-line chart shows an "M-top"! The battle for the $115,000 support level is critical.
From the BTC daily chart, the current technical situation hides risks:
"M-top" pattern confirmed: The price forms a double top in the $118,000-$120,000 range. If it breaks below the neckline at $115,000, the theoretical target drops straight to $108,000!
Volume trap: The seemingly gentle trading volume actually hides institutional repositioning—giants like Metaplanet and MicroStrategy are frantically accumulating near $100,000, with spot ETF seeing net inflows for seven consecutive weeks!
Moving average system ripped: The 5-day line crosses below the 20-day line, but the 60-day line ($115,000) still shows an upward trend, with both bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war around $115,000!
3. With conflicting signals, how to operate?
Bearish in the short term, bullish in the long term!
Geopolitical aspect: If the U.S.-Iran negotiations reach an agreement, risk-averse funds may withdraw from BTC, putting short-term pressure on prices;
Technical aspect: If the $115,000 support level is lost, it may trigger leveraged liquidation, accelerating the decline to $110,000;
Macroeconomic aspect: The probability of the Fed cutting rates in September is over 70%. Once liquidity is loosened, BTC may take the opportunity to break through previous highs!
Operation advice:
Light position players: Waiting for a stabilization signal around $115,000. If a long lower shadow or volume rebound occurs, light positions can be tried for long.
Contract users: Beware of stop-loss orders triggering below $115,000;
Long-term holders: Ignore short-term fluctuations; Texas and New Hampshire have passed Bitcoin reserve bills, and institutional entry is an unstoppable trend!
4. Jin Zhu's personal view:
Combining technical and fundamental analysis, BTC's current surge has sustainability:
In my opinion, BTC's current trend is perplexing. From 11 PM last night to now, there has been a noticeable amplitude. If it can break through the top of the box, I predict it will soar to $118,000. Next, we will see if it can stabilize at $118,000. If it does, it may likely break through the strong resistance at $119,000 again. On the other hand, if it falls below the box, it will drop to a support level of $118,000. If that support fails, it may drop to the strong support of $115,000. For specific support and resistance levels, refer to the Jin Zhu introduction!
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