The timing of the altcoin market initiation has always been a core topic of focus for cryptocurrency investors. In an exclusive interview at the 2025 Dubai Token2049 conference, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes not only shared his latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL but also pointed out the triggering conditions for the altcoin season and the differences in investment potential between ETH and SOL. Let's discuss in detail when the altcoin season will arrive and which is more worth investing in, ETH or SOL.
When will the altcoin season start?
In Hayes's view, the start of the altcoin season requires a prerequisite: Bitcoin must first break through $120,000 and rise to the $150,000-$200,000 range. Considering the current market environment, he expects this timing may occur in the summer or early third quarter of 2025 (August to October).
This judgment is closely related to the U.S. Treasury's 'invisible money printing' operations. By depleting Treasury General Account (TGA) funds and other accounting methods, the actual fiscal deficit of the U.S. has far exceeded the officially announced figures, with borrowing in the first to third quarters of 2025 increasing by 22% year-on-year. This implicit liquidity injection will boost global U.S. dollar liquidity, and risk assets like Bitcoin often benefit from this.
In addition to Bitcoin's performance, the initiation of the altcoin season also requires Ethereum to break through $4200 and SOL to break through $300—only when these mainstream altcoins show upward momentum will funds gradually rotate from Bitcoin to other altcoin markets.
The current Bitcoin price is approaching $120,000, and the window for altcoin season seems to be opening. However, Hayes specifically reminds that this altcoin season will not recreate the 2021 phenomenon of 'all coins rising together.' Those 'zombie coins' with overly high valuations, low circulation, and lacking real users and income support may continue to remain dormant, while funds will tend to chase projects with new narratives, such as AI agents or innovations in the DeFi space.
ETH vs SOL: Which is stronger?
In the contest between ETH and SOL, Hayes clearly expresses a more optimistic view of ETH's performance in the next 18-24 months. Although SOL has risen from $7 in 2020 to $265, far exceeding ETH, he believes ETH's core advantages are more solid.
From a fundamental perspective, ETH has the highest total locked value (TVL) in the crypto market, reaching $128 billion, far surpassing SOL's $9.38 billion; in terms of the number of developers, although ETH's growth rate is slightly lower than SOL's 17.7%, its absolute number is still far ahead; additionally, ETH's PoS mechanism is also more recognized for its security.
In May 2025, ETH completed the Pectra upgrade, further optimizing user experience, driving its price from $2646 a month ago to $2573 (approaching 53% of its historical high of $4878), showing strong rebound momentum.
In contrast, while SOL maintains its momentum due to the Meme coin frenzy (such as the Pump.fun platform) and active performance in the NFT and GameFi sectors, Hayes believes its long-term risk-reward ratio is not as favorable as ETH. One important reason is that SOL's level of decentralization and network stability is still under debate, and the Meme craze lacks a strong moat, making it easily replicable by other public chains.
Investment Suggestions
Altcoin Season Timing
Closely monitor whether Bitcoin can break through $120,000 and surge towards the $150,000-$200,000 range; the period from July to September will be a crucial window for judging whether the altcoin season has started. At the same time, keep a close eye on market dynamics and on-chain data (such as TVL, trading volume) to capture capital rotation signals in a timely manner.
ETH and SOL Allocation Strategies
ETH is more suitable for long-term allocation, and in the short term, it is worth paying attention to whether it can break through the $4000-$5000 range; although SOL has short-term upward potential driven by Meme and GameFi, caution is needed for pullback risks. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to the $140-$150 range before considering entry.
Risk Warning
The rise of the altcoin season is 'selective'; it is essential to avoid 'dinosaur coins' that lack fundamental support; the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so it is advisable to operate with small positions, set stop-loss orders, and diversify investments across different types of assets like Bitcoin, ETH, and SOL.
Overall, Hayes's predictions have ignited market expectations for an altcoin season: after Bitcoin breaks through $120,000, funds may rotate into altcoins in the third quarter, with ETH having greater long-term potential due to its strong fundamentals, while SOL maintains its heat through short-term trends. However, investors need to remain calm; the frenzy of 2021 is unlikely to be replicated. Only by closely monitoring Bitcoin's trends and market direction, avoiding being swayed by emotions, and conducting more research before acting can opportunities be better grasped.
