1: The altcoin prosperity index has been above 90 for five consecutive days, maintaining the previous viewpoint: This phase is the final stage of this bull market. The first stage of this bull market is from early October 2023 to the end of March 2024; the second stage is from September 2024 to December 2024, and the third stage will begin with a major increase in June 2025.
2: The third phase is also divided into the main performance of BTC and the smaller cycles of altcoin rebounds. From May to June, BTC will mainly perform independently, and from early July, there will be a spiraling upward cycle driven alternately by BTC and altcoins. The judgment of a peak in 2-4 months remains unchanged; if it’s slow, this peak is unlikely to last until December, at most until mid to late October; if it’s fast, around early September might be the peak.
3: Even if a peak crash ends the bull market, BTC is unlikely to drop 50% in three months or 80% in a year like it did before; BTC will belong to Wall Street's large funds and institutional ETFs, serving as market-making and capital reserves for listed companies and foreign exchange reserves for small to medium-sized countries. Wealthy individuals and enterprises will also treat it as an asset for allocation (preserving value and increasing 2-5 times every four years, which is quite appealing). BTC has already distanced itself from new small investors.
4: However, the crash rhythm of altcoins will be similar to before, and may even be more severe and deeper; once a downward trend is established, various coin speculators and institutions will surely rush to sell off altcoins (almost all altcoins are just air). A significant portion of these will be converted into BTC for preservation because large funds need to guard against the potential risk of USDT exploding (though the risk is small). Institutions and seasoned players in a bear market will definitely hold both BTC and USDT at the same time (those with strong beliefs may only hold BTC throughout both bull and bear markets; in any case, they will not only hold USDT). Missing out on BTC's long-term explosive growth is also a risk (as long as they sell, there is always the risk of missing out due to not buying back in time). If one realizes they are in a bear market and is slow to clear out, they should try to exchange all altcoins paired with BTC/X for BTC to reduce risk (BTC will eventually rise again; if you stubbornly hold onto altcoins, you will truly despair).
5: Currently, there are still 2-4 months until the peak. Engage in swing trading, selling at high points after buying, and re-entering after clearing out. Missing out on BTC's explosive growth after clearing out is also a risky endeavor. Ordinary people should concentrate on buying at the bottom and selling at the top (both buying and selling can be done in batches), aiming to capture 70-80% of the returns from the long-term cycle's major trend. Thinking about capturing every peak and even aiming for excess returns after pullbacks often leads to the opposite result.
6: In the upcoming cycles, new small investors should play the top 100 potential altcoins in the same way they played BTC before (as previously discussed in a dedicated article about the impact of ETFs in the future), aiming for returns of 3-10 times each cycle. From this perspective, the crypto space is still the same crypto space, and there are many years left to play, far better than some stock markets or real estate markets in India or Vietnam. To mitigate the risk of losing everything, it's best to avoid coins ranked 100 and below; at the same time, try to refrain from leveraged contracts on exchanges. As for capable young people who feel they can react faster than others, they should explore newly trending coins.
