📈 Blockchain project CFX (Conflux) current status and investment analysis (as of July 21, 2025)
🔍 One, Project Status and Technical Upgrades
1. **Conflux 3.0 Release and Government Endorsement**
- **Technical Upgrade**: From July 18-20, 2025, Conflux will hold a technology and ecology conference in Shanghai to officially release **Conflux 3.0**, planned to launch the mainnet in August. Key upgrades include:
- Transaction processing capacity improved from 3000-6000 TPS to **15,000 TPS** (can reach even higher in simple payment scenarios).
- New parallel block processing, AI agent support, RWA (Real World Asset) batch settlement capabilities.
- **Government Support**: The Shanghai Municipal Government's official website reposted the upgrade announcement, stating that Conflux is a 'top-tier global public blockchain' and emphasizing its role in cross-border payments and blockchain infrastructure.
2. **Strategic Positioning: Offshore RMB Stablecoin Pilot**
- Conflux plans to promote the issuance pilot of **offshore RMB stablecoins** in 'Belt and Road' countries (Central Asia, Southeast Asia), pegged to CNH (offshore RMB), for cross-border trade settlements and RWA applications.
- Has signed cooperation agreements with Hong Kong fintech company AnchorX (which issues the Hong Kong Dollar stablecoin AxHKD) and other institutions to explore cross-border payment tool development.
3. **Corporate Cooperation and Capital Trends**
- **Partners**: Including Fudan University International Finance Research Institute, Qingdao Copyright Trading Center, AnchorX, etc.
- **Potential Acquisition**: Hong Kong-listed company Lead Pharma Biotechnology (00399.HK) announced plans to acquire Conflux-related assets, causing its stock price to surge 240% in a single day.
💹 Two, Market Performance and Price Dynamics (Recent)
1. **Price Surge and Catalysts**
- **Short-term Increase**: On July 20, CFX surged from $0.11 to a maximum of $0.25, with a **single-day increase of over 100%**, and a cumulative increase of 202% in July. If calculated from the December 2022 low ($0.02), the increase is over 10 times.
- **Direct Driving Factors**:
- Conflux 3.0 technical expectations;
- 'Belt and Road' stablecoin pilot news;
- The leverage effect triggered by short liquidations (over $700K in short positions liquidated in 24 hours).
2. **On-chain Data and Trading Sentiment**
- **Trading Volume**: Surged 374% in 24 hours to **$551 million**, with derivative open interest (OI) increasing by 109%.
- **Long-Short Game**: Long leverage on Binance reaches up to 50 times, with a long/short ratio >1, indicating a bullish market sentiment.
- **Technical Indicators**:
- RSI (14 days) reaches **92.64** (severely overbought), but history shows that CFX often continues its trend after being overbought;
- Break through the 4-month resistance level of $0.10, the next key resistance level is $0.25.
💰 Three, Core Investment Value and Ecological Layout
1. **Compliance and Policy Dividends**
- As a public blockchain with a Chinese background, Conflux emphasizes **regulatory compatibility**, obtaining indirect official endorsement in the stablecoin and cross-border settlement fields to avoid policy risks.
- Aligning with China's 'Belt and Road' strategy, piloting the digitalization of offshore RMB, with potential market space reaching **$1.6 trillion/year** (2030 forecast).
2. **Technical Application Scenario Expansion**
- **AI + Blockchain**: Natively supports on-chain AI agents, attracting developer ecology.
- **RWA Implementation**: Collaborated with Ant Digital and dForce to pilot tokenize 15,000 lithium battery assets.
3. **Long-term Price Forecast**
Based on technological upgrades and ecological expansion, institutions predict that CFX may gradually approach the $1.00 milestone:
*Table: CFX Price Forecast (2025-2029)*
| Year | Lowest Price | Average Price | Highest Price |
| 2025 | $0.10 | $0.25 | $0.45 |
| 2026 | $0.22 | $0.38 | $0.70 |
| 2027 | $0.35 | $0.55 | $0.85 |
| 2028 | $0.50 | $0.72 | $1.00 |
| 2029 | $0.65 | $0.85 | $1.15 |
⚠️ Four, Risk Analysis and Challenges
1. **Short-term Volatility and Technical Risks**
- Current RSI overbought (>90), if it breaks the $0.10 support level, a **30%-50% pullback** may occur.
- Excessive long leverage in the derivatives market, sudden liquidity changes may easily trigger 'long liquidation' cascades.
2. **Uncertainty in Ecological Progress**
- Conflux 3.0 mainnet launches in August; if the technology falls short of expectations (e.g., TPS not reaching 15,000), it will undermine market confidence.
- Offshore RMB stablecoins need to coordinate multi-country regulations, and the pilot's advancement speed is uncertain.
3. **Long-term Competition and Regulatory Pressure**
- Facing ecological pressure from public chains like Ethereum and Solana, it needs to prove its differentiated advantages (like compliant cross-border payments).
- China still maintains a prohibitive attitude toward cryptocurrency trading, and changes in policy direction may affect liquidity.
💎 Five, Investment Strategy Recommendations
1. **Short-term Traders**:
- Focus on the $0.10-$0.15 support range, if it breaks through $0.25 with volume, you can lightly chase long positions;
- Beware of RSI stagnation signals, set a 5%-10% stop loss.
2. **Medium to Long-term Investors**:
- Can accumulate positions before the mainnet launch in August, targeting $0.70 in 2026 (RWA and stablecoin progress need verification);
- Position recommendation ≤5%, to hedge systemic risks in the public chain sector.
3. **Risk-Averse Users**:
- Watch Conflux 3.0's actual performance and the pilot's implementation in the 'Belt and Road' initiative, and wait for ecological TVL (Total Value Locked) and stablecoin issuance data to become clear before making decisions.
💎 **Summary**: CFX, leveraging technological upgrades and national strategy connections, has emerged as a dark horse in public chains, but the short-term surge accumulates high risks. Investors need to find a balance between policy dividends and technological realization while strictly adhering to risk control disciplines.
