Is this question serious?
If you hold Bitcoin, 500 to 5000, that’s a tenfold increase. What does that mean?
In other words, it will take about two cycles of the crypto market, which translates to a timeframe of approximately 5-10 years. It is emphasized that this is a high probability because no one can predict the future. This time frame has no reference value; it is mentioned here to illustrate another issue.
The visible increase of 3-5 times in Bitcoin's price per cycle is evident. This visible underlying judgment is based on conservative estimates of past cycle increases. Why is such a conservative estimate made?
From a long-term trend perspective, the scarcity and demand of Bitcoin have not fundamentally changed. The total supply remains constant, and due to various reasons, the number that disappears forever will only increase, not decrease. This leads to a further reduction in the total amount, meaning that scarcity will become more pronounced. Historical data shows that whenever a cycle comes, Bitcoin can conservatively rise 3-5 times from lows to highs. Do you have this confidence?
Okay, if you agree with the analysis logic above, newcomers in the crypto space should know what to do. Never engage in simple numerical games like the ones mentioned in the question; there are only downsides with no benefits. According to the temptations of the crypto world, newcomers can hold Bitcoin, and holding it for 5-10 years is basically a false proposition. Take a look at a set of data compiled by the Pengpai Finance Research Institute.
In the Bitcoin market, more than half of Bitcoin buyers hold between 0 to 0.001 Bitcoin, accounting for 51.42% of all Bitcoin buyers, but only 0.023% of the total. Bitcoin's concentration is also very high, with over 97.9% of accounts holding at most one Bitcoin. A total of 38 million accounts hold less than 1 million Bitcoin. The remaining 2.12% of accounts hold a total of 17.59 million Bitcoin, with a market value of nearly 100 billion USD. Only two accounts hold more than 100,000 Bitcoin, according to the latest data, holding 147,000 and 139,000 Bitcoin, totaling 16 billion USD.
What do the above data indicate?
The fact that retail investors or newcomers basically do not hold Bitcoin is not because they can’t afford it. The reason lies in their perception of Bitcoin's value, their correct understanding of its price, and their self-awareness of their investment system. Why is this the case?
Doubting the underlying characteristics of Bitcoin, questioning its long-term value, not understanding what the basic need for Bitcoin is, and when they finally manage to hold onto some Bitcoin, as soon as a bear market arrives or there's a black swan event in the international landscape, they quickly cash in their chips. What can be said? It’s very normal to observe this carefully; Bitcoin can drop by 70-80% in a bear market, and a black swan can make it drop by several tens of percent. How many newcomers who are unclear about the nature of Bitcoin can hold on? It can be said with certainty that Bitcoin has already surpassed the understanding of this group of people. Please leave as soon as possible; if you don’t, there is only one way to die.
Moreover, newcomers generally do not have much capital. Seeing the current price of Bitcoin, they may think it is already very high and prefer to buy some imaginative altcoins. They follow the same logic as in the stock market, thinking that certain stock prices are too high, so they might as well buy some lower-priced stocks, at least they can hold more! Little do they know, this is actually the biggest advantage in the crypto space. No matter how high the Bitcoin price is, regardless of how much capital newcomers have, they can still buy the best assets in the crypto world, which is not possible in the stock market. Don't you think it's unfair for newcomers to see clear hard currency right in front of them but choose to pick up garbage?
Lastly, let me talk about my own investment system. The crypto space is not a place to get rich easily. If you enter the crypto world recklessly without any investment system or experience summary in other investment markets, it can be extremely dangerous. The crypto space can be said to be rife with scams, and the harvesting methods are a thousand times more insane than the stock market. The fundamental reason is that the crypto market lacks regulation. As adults, it should be easy to understand what regulation means.
The old trader only engages in real transactions. The team still has positions available, hurry to get on board.
