1. The stable profit logic of contract trading
Many people view contracts as 'gambling tools,' but in fact, they are flexible trading tools — profits can be made whether prices rise or fall, with opportunities far exceeding spot trading. However, contracts are extremely difficult; to achieve stable profits, one must first establish a comprehensive trading system, especially suitable for experienced players, while beginners should be cautious.
Position management is fundamental:
My funds are divided into three categories: living fund (to ensure basic survival, save in fixed deposits), business fund (to cope with other operations, keep liquid cash), investment fund (fully invested in the cryptocurrency circle). In the investment fund, 80% is in spot trading (holding long-term, aiming to exchange for more BTC), and 20% is in contracts.
Contract funds are further subdivided: trend fund (holding until the trend ends, making big money but prone to volatility), short-term fund (swing trading, more fun but profits not as high as trend funds). Orders should never exceed 50% of the contract fund to ensure there are still opportunities after liquidation; being steady is more important than going all in.
MA5 Moving Average Strategy:
This is a high win-rate technique I've validated: when the 5-day line turns upward, open a long position; if it doesn't break below, hold; if it breaks, close the long and open a short, and don't close the short unless it returns. If the moving average is flat, clear positions and observe. Paired with 5x leverage, although unable to catch the bottom or top, it can avoid 'halfway down' traps and capture most trend movements.
Stop-loss is a lifeline:
Most people lose because they 'should have left but didn't.' Before placing a trade, you must set a stop-loss position and immediately hang it up after placing the order; never withdraw it temporarily. If you violate discipline, you can write a 500-word reflection and review, and after a few times, it will become a habit. Remember: profit is hard to control, but loss is controllable; keeping your capital gives you a chance. 2. TRB Bloodbath Market: The Hunting Logic of Strong Institutional Coins The extreme market of TRB in early 2024 is a classic case of 'pump and dump' by the market maker; understanding it can help avoid most traps.
1. Identify strong institutional coins:
TRB is a typical strong institutional coin — 95% of the chips are concentrated in a few addresses, with a circulation of only 1.95 million coins (far below BTC's 21 million), making its price easy to manipulate. On-chain data is key to identification; market makers will not put large amounts of coins on exchanges, and chip concentration is the core metric.
2. Use sentiment indicators to predict trends:
Open interest: when the price and open interest rise together, it indicates that big money is entering, but it needs to be distinguished whether it is from market makers or retail investors — this is where the LSUR indicator comes in (greater than 1 for retail long, less than 1 for retail short). LSUR + open interest: when TRB rises, LSUR rises simultaneously, indicating retail investors are following the trend to go long; at this time, market makers are likely to wash out (a 30% drop, $30 million liquidated). After the washout, retail investors still remain bullish (LSUR continues to rise), and the main force places large buy orders below $250, attracting robots to buy actively and push the price from $250 to $464 with only $40 million in funds. Funding rate: TRB's funding rate once reached -2% (every 4 hours), meaning retail investors were crazily shorting, while the main force went against the tide. But after a rapid surge, it quickly plummeted by 70% due to retail investors trying to catch the bottom, leading to mass liquidation.
Lesson: Strong institutional coins have no fundamental support and rely solely on capital manipulation. It is essential to combine major orders and sentiment indicators to follow the market, and stop-loss must be set, or one risks being wiped out easily. 3. The core of the trading system: structure and trend. To transform from a 'novice' to a 'master,' one must understand the relationship between 'structure' and 'trend'; the former is key for left-side trading, while the latter is core for right-side trading.
1. Structure: Capture turning points
Structure quantifies 'speed and momentum' to judge the turning point from prosperity to exhaustion, belonging to left-side trading. Its formation prerequisite is 'dullness' — when price and indicators are out of sync: price hits a new low, but the MACD's DIF value does not hit a new low, and there are two negative bars, then it is considered dull; after dullness, when the DIF turns upward, the structure forms (can be divided into bottom and top structures, and vice versa).
2. Cycles and resonance
Structure applies to any cycle (daily, weekly down to 1-minute charts); the larger the cycle, the stronger and longer the influence of the structure. Large cycles constrain small cycles, and if multi-cycles show structure simultaneously (cycle resonance), the power will be very strong (rare but explosive). Note: all prices should be based on the cycle's closing price, and indicator values also need to complete the cycle to be confirmed.
3. Combination of structure and trend
Trend is the right-side follow-up after a turning point, while structure is the left-side prediction before the turning point; only by combining the two can we form a closed loop. Structure provides quantitative standards for buying/selling (e.g., buy when a bottom structure forms), while trend determines the holding cycle (e.g., after the structure forms, hold in the direction of the trend). One must be cautious: the success rate of structure is not 100%; when it fails, 'disappearance of dullness' should serve as a corrective signal (e.g., if DIF drops below the leading value, timely stop-loss). Closing remarks: The essence of trading is a probability game; long-term survival is the key to profitability. Position management maintains mentality, stop-loss discipline protects capital, and indicators and systems improve win rates. Whether it's contract strategies or structural analysis, the core lies in: not being greedy or anxious, knowing and acting as one. There are many opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle, but those who can seize them are always those who understand the rules and maintain discipline.
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