Brothers, this market really is different! Multiple altcoin season indicators have already broken the 50 barrier, reaching the highest point since December last year—institutional giants are charging in with cash, the open interest in ETH perpetual contracts has surged from $18 billion to $28 billion in just one week, the speed of capital entering is comparable to a hungry tiger pouncing. Bitcoin's market share has dropped from 64% to 60%, while ETH has risen sharply against the trend, with its market share soaring from 9.7% to 11.6%. The signals are so clear; it's hard for the altcoin season not to kick off!
The altcoin season has been given the green light, three major undeniable pieces of evidence.
Financial Indicators Blooming: In addition to the explosive growth of ETH contract positions, the total market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) has surged back to $1.5 trillion, setting a new high since January this year, with technical formations directly breaking through descending wedges—this is akin to opening a highway for upward movement.
Stablecoin ammunition is ready: Stablecoin reserves in exchanges have surged to a historical peak of $31 billion, with Binance and HTX alone accumulating over $1.7 billion this week. It's all real money waiting to buy the dip; how fierce is that firepower?
Market sentiment is fully ignited: The altcoin season index has surged from the June low of 15 straight up, touching the critical line of 75 on July 8. Although it is still hovering around 50, the rhythm of capital rotation is clear—ETH surged 17% last week, pushing the ETH/BTC exchange rate up by 8%, and the main forces have already caught the scent of profit!
Key Reminder: The real 'comprehensive altcoin season' requires over 75% of mainstream coins to outperform Bitcoin within 90 days, the current compliance rate is about 50%—this means the market is only halfway up, and there is still plenty of room!
Institutions have replaced retail investors as the main actors, with favorable policies igniting a frenzy of allocations.
The engine of this cycle has completely shifted gears! In the past, retail FOMO pushed up coin prices; now, financial giants and asset management companies are personally coming into the market to buy. The core driving force is the U.S. (GENIUS Act) implementation—once the regulatory framework for stablecoins is clear, institutions immediately treat ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, and other public chain tokens as 'crypto reserve assets.'
Look at how fierce this operation is: The net inflow of ETH spot ETFs has crushed Bitcoin ETFs for two consecutive days, and BlackRock has confidently stated its full confidence in the staking version of the ETH ETF. Once the SEC approves the ETH staking ETF in the coming months, the flood of funds shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum may completely explode—institutions are not just playing spot; they have already paved the way for the yield model.
Why is ETH the king of the altcoin season? Three nuclear-level expectations are backing it.
This time, ETH is definitely not just a follower; it is the leading banner! Behind the surge in market share to 11.6% are three major killer moves:
Staking ETF Expectations: Intensive establishment of bullish options positions for ETH with September and December expirations, with large funds betting on positive developments in the fourth quarter—once approved, ETH will upgrade from a 'pure token' to an 'income-generating asset,' directly doubling institutional allocation value!
Technical momentum has started: Analyst Gert van Lagen assesses, based on Elliott Wave Theory, that ETH is entering the final wave of a multi-year bull market, if the pattern is complete, the target is aimed at $10,000—keep in mind it's only $3,800 now, you can do the math on the space!
Ecosystem siphon effect: The logic for this round of institutional coin purchases is clear: betting on the 'underlying public chain for custodial stablecoins' 4. As the most robust and fastest compliant L1 in the ecosystem, ETH naturally receives the largest dividends. Those who still think ETH is outdated should wake up!
$5 trillion carnival is imminent; how to seize sector rotation opportunities?
The explosive potential of the altcoin market may exceed everyone's expectations: TOTAL3 market capitalization (excluding BTC and ETH) is currently only $1 trillion, analysts see a target of $5 trillion—400% growth potential is waiting to be ignited! But remember, making money requires rhythm:
Phase One (Current): Funds are focused on large-cap blue chips like ETH and SOL; institutional endorsement and high liquidity are key;
Phase Two: After ETH's returns outperform BTC, funds will overflow to ecosystem leaders like ADA and XRP;
Phase Three: Dark horse altcoins are dancing wildly, but volatility is severe—BTC market share dropping to 48%-50% is a warning signal, consider retreating.
Bloody lessons: When the altcoin season collapses at the end of 2024, most coins will drop by 50%-90%. So remember the mantra: Large positions on the leaders, small positions on the speculative coins, gradually reduce positions when the index breaks 70!
Airs' Action Guide: Don't miss out and don't become cannon fodder.
Short-term: Increase positions in ETH and SOL during pullbacks; institutional buying supports the base, with a high margin of safety;
Mid-term: Keep a close watch on the approval of the ETH staking ETF (the next 1-2 months will determine life or death), add heavy positions if approved;
Long-term: After BTC.D drops below 55%, immediately expand allocations to second-tier teams like ADA and AVAX, fully enjoying the benefits of sector rotation.
Especially be cautious: When the altcoin season index breaks 70, exchange stablecoin inflows suddenly decrease, or BTC.D rebounds from the bottom—when all three signals converge, run like the wind!
In conclusion: The bold will be rewarded, while the hesitant will starve.
History won't simply repeat itself, but it will rhyme with similarities. This round of altcoin season driven by institutional funds, with ETH at the forefront and policy assistance, could be the biggest wealth opportunity of 2025—$1.5 trillion of hot money is already in place, and a $5 trillion space is opening up.
Now, you only need to do two things:
Throw away doubt: The data does not lie, the ETH market share of 11.6% is just the starting point;
Hurry up and research: Make a list right away: ETH, SOL, ADA... which has the strongest fundamentals, and which has hidden whales?
What you lack is not luck; what you lack is the top team of Airs! I am Airs, guiding you through the mist of the crypto world to seize hardcore opportunities! Hit follow, as we keep a close eye on crypto opportunities amidst the storm of the trade war!