The global central bank faucet is about to be turned on again, and the 'fresh water' for the crypto market is quietly flowing from Frankfurt!
The European Central Bank will hold a meeting this Thursday (July 24) to decide on interest rates, and the outcome is basically certain—interest rates will definitely remain at 2%. It's not that they don't want to cut, but Trump's '30% tariff sword' is still hanging overhead (August 1 is the deadline), and officials are about to go on vacation; no one dares to act rashly.
But don't be fooled by the 'lying flat' appearance! Inside information has already leaked: the probability of a rate cut in September is soaring, with two cuts this year almost a done deal (the market bets on a 40% chance in September and 90% in December). President Lagarde's remarks this time are likely to mention economic risks 'tilting downward'—this code is understood by seasoned players, equivalent to a clear signal to say 'wait for me to come back and I will ease!'
A storm is quietly brewing on the European continent.
On the surface, it seems calm, but in reality, there are strong undercurrents. The European Central Bank's choice to hold still this time is due to three layers of high-pressure attacks:
Trump's tariff bomb: The August 1 deadline is approaching, and if the 30% tariff lands, European car and wine exporters will bleed profusely, the central bank must keep some ammunition in reserve;
Euro appreciation crushes exports: The euro rises, turning the foreign exchange earnings of businesses into 'shrinking pork', profits being squeezed dry;
French fiscal powder keg: The government is spending money like water, and when the budget proposal is submitted in October, it could trigger a political crisis.
Bond market veterans have already sensed the crisis. The yield on German 10-year bonds has been rising, and the yield curve has steepened, indicating a collapse in capital confidence in the long-term economy. Even more painful is the situation with Italian and French bonds—yields are 88 and 70 basis points higher than Germany respectively! The surge in risk premiums reflects a panic vote of confidence by capital.
September rate cut: a long-planned 'crypto gas station'
The European Central Bank's delay tactics essentially wait for two major signals to land:
August tariff life-and-death line: if Trump really takes action, the European economy will be immediately crippled, and rate cuts will serve as emergency injections;
September new economic forecast: data updates upon returning from vacation, just in time to announce easing.
The historical script has already been written: Last September, the ECB cut rates, and Bitcoin rebounded in response, followed by the 'Uptober' frenzy starting in October. Why are institutions so ecstatic? Rate cuts mean giving the market double espresso!
Hot money fleeing low-interest deposits: The days of banks lying down to earn interest are over, and funds are forced to rush into high-risk assets;
Dollar depreciation as a divine assist: Euro easing suppresses the dollar, causing Bitcoin priced in dollars to 'appreciate passively';
A global chorus of easing: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates three times next year, and fiscal stimulus from Germany and China is already in place, a tsunami of liquidity sweeping across the globe!
Morgan Stanley has hit the nail on the head: 'pump then dump' is a classic routine. If the market collapses due to tariffs, the central bank will inevitably print money to save the market, and Bitcoin will become the biggest winner!
The golden operational timetable for crypto players
Now until September is the golden window for hoarding coins! Three major signals are closely watched:
July 24 Lagarde's remarks: If the 'downside risks' are mentioned again, immediately increase your position without hesitation;
August 1 tariff decision: If a black swan appears, a short-term crash could be a buying opportunity;
September 10 ECB meeting: Announcement day for rate cuts, which could be the moment for a surge!
On-chain data has revealed clues: whale addresses have significantly increased their holdings in the past two weeks. Smart money is racing ahead while retail investors are still waiting for 'good news to come out'? Don't forget the script where Bitcoin soars 20% in a single month after the rate cut in September 2024!
Even more ruthless is the logic of institutional double kill: rate cuts not only lower government bond yields but also raise inflation expectations. Gold and Bitcoin, the 'anti-inflation brothers', will be the only two winners. Grayscale's research director, Zach Pandl, predicted: 'October is the month with the highest average return for Bitcoin'—and the September rate cut is the ignition!
The current calm in Frankfurt is just the heat before the storm. When the European Central Bank turns on the faucet in September, hot money will flood into the crypto market like a burst dam. Those whales who quietly bought in July have long seen through the essence of this game—central bank money printing is the best promoter for Bitcoin!
History does not repeat details, but it does repeat rhythms. When Lagarde presses the rate cut button in September, the Bitcoin in your wallet will smile for you. Do you think this news is hard enough? Like and share! The next issue reveals (Countdown to Fed rate cut: Altcoin doubling roadmap)
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