Bitcoin currently shows some resilience above $118,000, despite facing pressures from miner and whale sell-offs, as well as the UK government's reductions. The price remains relatively stable. However, this week, the three major economic dynamics in the U.S. could become key variables affecting its trend, which traders should focus on.
First and foremost is the speech by Fed Chairman Powell at the banking conference on Tuesday. This statement comes right after the June CPI showed an inflation rate of 2.7% and just a week before the next FOMC meeting—currently, the market believes there is a 95.3% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged.
Powell's remarks will reveal his attitude towards the current economy and monetary policy, especially in the context of pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates and rumors that his own term may end early. If he signals a dovish stance (such as hinting at future rate cuts), it could boost market liquidity and risk appetite, benefiting Bitcoin; conversely, if he maintains a hawkish stance, it may trigger concerns about tightening liquidity in the market.
Secondly, there is the initial unemployment claims data. Last week's data was 221,000, and the market expects this week to rise to 229,000. If the actual data significantly exceeds expectations, it may reflect a weakening labor market, enhancing market expectations for a Fed rate cut, which would indirectly support Bitcoin; if the data is below expectations, it would indicate a strong employment market, potentially weakening rate cut expectations, putting some pressure on Bitcoin.
Thirdly, the S&P manufacturing and services PMI will be released on Thursday. The June services PMI was 52.9 (slightly lower than May), while the manufacturing PMI reached 52.9 (a three-year high). The July forecasts for both are 53.2 and 52.4, respectively.
Generally speaking, strong PMI data will enhance confidence in traditional markets, potentially leading to funds flowing from Bitcoin to stocks and other assets; if the data falls short of expectations, especially if manufacturing shows significant weakness, it could strengthen market concerns about economic downturns, driving up demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.
Overall, the fluctuations of Bitcoin this week are likely to revolve around these three major economic signals. The current price stands firm at $118,000, showing some support, but factors such as miner sell-offs and institutional movements, combined with macroeconomic variables, increase the probability of short-term volatility. Traders need to pay close attention to Powell's speech regarding policy tendencies and the deviations of economic data from expectations, as these could become key points for triggering Bitcoin price breaks or corrections.
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