Family! The recent drama in the crypto circle is more exciting than the sequel of (Empresses in the Palace) — Bitcoin just played a 'roller coaster' at the $120,000 level (peaking at $123,000 → falling back to $117,000 → stabilizing at $119,000), Ethereum quietly surged 26%, outperforming its big brother, and even the long-quiet XRP is riding on Bitcoin's heat, with analysts calling out a target of '6-10 dollars'!
Today's article, we won't be biased, we'll thoroughly explain the stories of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and this trio — after all, the current market is no longer an era of 'one coin dominating', we need to keep our eyes and ears open!
🌌 Global perspective: The market is 'shifting gears', are altcoins about to 'take over'?
First, look at the big environment: after Bitcoin broke above the $120,000 level in early July, it has been 'sideways exercising' between $117,000 and $123,000 for the past week, but the trading volume has quietly increased — what does this indicate? Old investors know, 'sideways is not a stall, it's building momentum'!
But what's more noteworthy is the subtle change in market style:
Bitcoin's dominance is declining: from 63% in June to the current 61.05% (CoinGecko data), this is the largest drop since May;
The total market cap of altcoins has soared: from $1.06 trillion in June to $1.45 trillion, a 41% increase compared to Bitcoin's 20% rise, which is significantly larger;
Capital flow has shifted: Glassnode data shows that since early July, the number of short-term holding addresses ('new money') has exceeded long-term holders ('old money') for the first time, indicating that retail and institutions are 'moving house' to altcoins.
In the words of an old crypto veteran: 'Bitcoin is responsible for 'stabilizing the market', while altcoins are responsible for 'pushing volatility' — now, the 'spring' of altcoins may be coming!
🚀 Bitcoin: Is the four-year cycle stable? 2025 may usher in the 'best period'.
If we talk about the 'anchor point' of market sentiment, it has to be Bitcoin's 'four-year cycle theory'.
From the halving in 2016 to the bull market in 2017 (30 times increase); from the halving in 2020 to the bull market in 2021 (10 times increase); from the halving in 2024 to now... you taste it, you savor it!
Analyst Merlijn The Trader directly stated: "The 'final battle' of Bitcoin has not yet been staged! Right now, it can only be considered a 'halftime break'."
He pulled out historical charts to explain: After each halving, Bitcoin starts a bull market surge of at least a year, with the last two increasing by 10 times and 3 times respectively, and this time in 2024... well, it has only risen for two years now, it's still early for the 'peak'!
Even more astounding is that historical data shows that the peak of a bull market is often three times the previous high: from 19600 in 2017 to 69000 in 2021 (3.5 times), so if this time follows this pattern... Assuming the 2024 peak is 69000, will it hit 200000 in 2025? Or even higher?
However, in the short term, Bitcoin may 'sideways digest' between $117,000 and $123,000 — after all, having just broken above the $120,000 level, retail investors chasing highs, institutions taking profits, and contract players facing liquidations all need to take it slow. But in the long term, as long as the four-year cycle is not broken (currently all signals show 'very stable'), hitting $200,000 or even $300,000 in 2025 is really not a dream!
The technical aspect is also verifying this: on the BTC/USD monthly chart, the price is steadily climbing along the 'upward channel', the MACD indicator continues to diverge after a golden cross, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index), although close to 70 (overbought zone), has not yet shown a 'top divergence' — indicating that the upward trend remains healthy.
🦾 Ethereum: The 'big brother' of the altcoin season, is it about to stand up?
Brothers, pay attention! Ethereum's (ETH) strong breakout this time may truly blow up the long-suppressed altcoin season! 🔥 Data doesn't lie, the market's undercurrents are surging, and the wind is really changing!
📈 ETH/BTC weekly chart shows four consecutive green candles! Stiffly challenging Bitcoin!
After a few months of grinding, ETH finally exploded! It surged 26.93% against BTC on the weekly chart, directly reaching 0.03153! 📈
This is the fourth consecutive week crushing BTC! ETH is getting tough, completely diverging from Bitcoin's trend! 💪
📉 BTC's dominance has been severely impacted! Is capital fleeing?
Just as ETH surged, Bitcoin's leading position is becoming unstable! 📉 Its dominance has dropped to 61.05%, setting a new low in over two months!
Money seems to be quietly (or blatantly?) flowing from BTC to elsewhere...
💰 The total market cap of altcoins skyrocketed by 41%! $1.5 trillion is not a dream!
Key evidence has arrived! The altcoin army (TOTAL2) has seen its market cap surge by 41% since the low in June! 💥 From $1.06 trillion to around $1.5 trillion!
This big rebound, ETH is definitely the leader! Its strength is like a magnet 🧲, drawing funds towards the entire altcoin ecosystem!
🚦 The altcoin season index is approaching a critical point! Just a step away?
Coinglass's altcoin seasonal index has surged to 51! Although it is still a bit far from the officially announced season of 75, the momentum... those who understand know! The index has been climbing steadily recently! 📈
The signals are getting stronger!
💸 Capital rotation confirmed! Glassnode data is shining bright!
Glassnode data confirms: Funds began quietly laying out altcoins as early as early July! 👀
What's more critical is: short-term indicators have strongly outperformed long-term indicators! This is the first time in months! This change coincides perfectly with ETH's explosion! 💡
A trader joked: "Buying ETH now is not just buying coins, it's a 'ticket' to the entire altcoin track — after all, for altcoins to rise, there has to be a 'big brother', right?"
💰 XRP: An undervalued 'potential stock', can $144,000 BTC push it to $6-10?
If we talk about the most 'quietly making money' recently, it has to be XRP — it just surged 50% last week and is now stabilizing around $3.57, looking unremarkable but hiding a big move!
Anonymous technician Dr. Cat made a 'bomb prediction': If Bitcoin rises to $144,000, XRP could directly hit $6-10!
How did it happen? Dr. Cat's technical analysis is incredibly 'hardcore':
Key resistance level breakthrough
Looking at the monthly chart of XRP against Bitcoin, it's now 'sticking' near the key Ichimoku cloud threshold of 2674 Satoshis, just like an athlete standing at the starting line — 'If it can close above 2674 Satoshis this month, it will at least surge to 4135 Satoshis in the coming months!' This is not only a technical breakthrough but also the 'first bullish market structure reversal in seven years';
Fibonacci extension model
Based on the calculations of wave N ($4.53), wave E ($6.31), and 2E extension ($9.22), the current price of $3.57, a short-term rise of 26% to $4.5 is a 'minimum return', a mid-term rise of 71% to $6.31 is 'normal performance', and the ultimate target of $9.22 (a 158% increase) is the 'bomb'.
Market sentiment cooperation
On the XRP/USD weekly chart, the Chikou Span (lagging line) has broken through the price line, forming a 'bullish crossover'; the Tenkan-Kijun (turning line) has golden crossed the Kijun-Sen (base line), signaling a 'short-term momentum turning bullish'.
Of course, risks cannot be ignored:
If Bitcoin doesn't hit $144,000, or XRP doesn't close above 2674 Satoshis on the monthly chart, it may have to retrace and oscillate around $3.
Ripple's lawsuit against the SEC has won, but regulatory uncertainty still exists, which may suppress the upward space.
However, Dr. Cat confidently declared: "Even being conservative, $4.5 is still a 'minimum return', if this wave doesn't surge, should we wait until 2026?"
🌈 The current market is very much like 'before the hot pot boils'.
To summarize, the current crypto circle is like a pot of just boiling hot pot —
Bitcoin is the 'butter in the pot', very stable but with a slightly lower heat, determining the 'temperature' of the entire market;
Ethereum is 'freshly cut beef', leading the way and bringing out the aroma, triggering a collective 'stir' in altcoins;
XRP is 'hidden tripe', tucked away but very elastic, whether you can get a taste depends on your sharpness!
But remember, everyone: there are no 'sure wins' in the crypto world, no matter how bullish the prediction, it must be based on the market's face. Bitcoin hitting $144,000? XRP hitting $10? Sounds great, but we have to keep an eye on key levels — like Bitcoin's support at $120,000, Ethereum's resistance at 0.032 BTC, and XRP's monthly close at 2674 Satoshis.
Finally, let me share an old saying in the circle: 'Bull markets don’t speak of tops, but don’t chase highs; bear markets don’t speak of bottoms, but dare to catch bottoms.' The current market is suitable for holding good mainstream coins (BTC, ETH) as 'ballast', while taking small positions in altcoins (XRP, potential Layer 2 coins, RWA leaders), and remember to set stop losses — after all, those who can eat a whole cow are never the ones in a hurry to gnaw on the bones.
✍️ DYOR, manage risk well, and may everyone set sail in the crypto circle! 🌊
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