The most essential investment opportunity comes from the 'cognitive time difference'—it's not that others don't know, but that they don't dare to believe yet.
In the short term, the market is a game of behavior—forced buying, forced selling, and following trends, sweeping away individual judgment like a flood.
In the long term, the market is a competition of cognition:
The real money is never made from visible growth data, but from whether you can take a step ahead, insight into the future that 'others will eventually believe,' and dare to bet on it while it is still questioned and underestimated.
This is the essence of the Davis double play: it’s not the profit doubling that makes you money, but your bet at the moment when 'others have not realized this will double';
it’s not the expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio itself that makes you rich, but your capture of the market sentiment still in the low valley before it takes off.
Many people think that investment profits come from 'information asymmetry', but in fact, information is almost symmetrical now; the real excess returns are hidden in 'cognitive asymmetry', more specifically, the cognitive time difference between you and the market.
So, don’t ask whether an asset is worth it now; ask: in a few years, will most people regret not buying it?
Now, try asking yourself: if you are prepared to hold this coin for many years, do you feel that you have an absolute 'cognitive differential'!