🔍 Technical Analysis (July 21, 2025 – Spot)
📊 Price Range:
Bitcoin is currently trading around $119,050, bouncing between $116,776 and $119,149 intraday.
📈 Trend & Pattern:
BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle on the 4‑hour chart, indicating consolidation after a volatile rally from ~$101K.
📐 Key Levels:
Support: $116,800 → $116,000
Resistance: $119,000–$119,150 → $120,700–$122,500
⚙️ Indicators:
RSI (4H): ~50 — neutral stance with space to move
MACD (4H): Flattening — momentum cooling post bullish crossover
Volume: Low–moderate, signaling traders are awaiting breakout confirmation
🌐 On‑Chain sentiment:
Short-term holder MVRV suggests there's still ~20–25% upside potential before profit-taking intensifies.
⏱ 4‑Hour Signal: What to Watch
🟢 Bullish Breakout
Trigger: Close above $119,150–$119,200 with volume
Targets: $120,700 → $122,500
Stop‑Loss: Below $116,800
🔻 Bearish Breakdown
Trigger: Breakdown below $116,800 on strong volume
Targets: $115,400 → $114,000
📋 Bias: Neutral-to-bullish — triangle squeeze suggests a high-probability breakout; direction will determine trend continuation.
🌦 “Bitcoin Weather Forecast”
⛅ Today: "Mostly cloudy with low volatility" — triangle pattern holding, no dramatic swings.
🌤 Chance of breakout storms: 💨 60% — good odds for a move once volume picks up.
🌧 Risk of pullback showers: 🧥 40% — dropping below $116.8K could cool bullish momentum fast.
✅ Strategy Summary
Breakout Traders: Ready for entry once price breaks $119.2K+, ride the rally.
Dip Buyers: Watch for bounce near $116.8K–$116K with tight stop-loss.
HODLers/Accumulators: Current consolidation is a reasonable spot to add, expecting upward breakout.
🛑 Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always DYOR, set stop-losses, and manage your risk smartly.
💬 What’s your forecast?
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