The Federal Reserve remains inactive! The bottom of the BTC box is brewing for a surge, and institutional funds have quietly started bottom-fishing!
Federal Reserve policy setting the tone, the crypto market welcomes 'easing expectations'.
On July 21, Beijing time, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates is as high as 95.3%, making this decision almost certain. For the crypto market, this means a sharp reduction in short-term liquidity pressure, providing a breather for risk assets. Historical data shows that after the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes in 2024, BTC experienced a main upward wave; this time, with interest rates unchanged, coupled with the stability of global regulations in 2025 and continuous inflow of ETF funds, BTC's 'digital gold' attribute is being wildly bet on by institutions.
The candlestick hides secrets: the bottom of the box may become a 'golden pit'.
According to the latest candlestick chart analysis, BTC's current price is closely aligned with the lower boundary of the box (around 116,355 USD), but has rebounded quickly after multiple recent dips, indicating strong support below. More critically, trading volume in the bottom region has not surged to kill the drop, but rather shows a characteristic of 'consolidation with reduced volume'—this is often a signal of institutional accumulation!
On the technical front, once the upper boundary of the box (118,434 USD) is broken, it will open up a new round of upward space. Combined with the Federal Reserve's 'dovish' signals, the market generally expects: if BTC can stabilize at 118,000 USD in July, it is likely to challenge the 130,000 USD mark in August!
Institutions have taken action; how should retail investors position themselves?
Continuous inflow of ETF funds: Since Q2 2025, the net subscription amount for Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has exceeded 5 billion USD, with institutional holdings reaching 89%.
Policy dividends released: Breakthrough in US stablecoin legislation, multiple countries include BTC in strategic reserves, enhancing legitimacy directly boosts long-term demand.
Halving effect fermenting: After the BTC halving in 2024, the daily new supply will be only 450 coins, while institutional buying far exceeds this number, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Judge's exclusive view: The bull market is not over, and a breakout from the box is imminent!
Currently, BTC is in a dual-bottom formation of 'policy bottom + technical bottom', and the Federal Reserve's inactivity is equivalent to injecting a 'liquidity stabilizer' into the market. It is recommended that investors pay attention to two major signals:
In my opinion, the current trend of BTC is puzzling everyone. From 2 AM to the current stage, a V-shaped pattern has formed. If it can break through the top of the box, the judge asserts it will soar straight to 119,000. Next, we need to see if it can stabilize at 119,000; if it can stabilize, it may very well break through the strong resistance at 119,500 again. On the other hand, if it falls below the box, it will drop to a support level of 117,800. If that support fails, it may drop to a strong support level of 116,000. For specific support and resistance levels, see the judge's brief introduction!!!
Increased trading volume: If the trading volume surges to over 300 billion USD during the breakout from the box, the probability of rising is over 70%;
Aggressive investors: The current price (around 116,000 USD) can be accumulated in batches, with stop-loss set at the lower boundary of the box (116,000 USD);
Conservatives: Wait for a breakthrough above 118,000 USD, then confirm on the pullback before considering adding positions.
Despite the gathering of positive news, caution is needed regarding short-term pullback risks. If the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for September fall through or a global black swan event occurs, BTC might retrace to the middle of the box (117,000 USD). It is recommended to strictly control positions and avoid going all-in!
The Federal Reserve's 'inactivity' is akin to pressing the 'accelerate' button for the BTC bull market. The bottom of the box is both a trap and a pie—it's crucial whether you can understand the language of funds behind the candlestick chart. Remember: long shadows in bull markets, long bodies in bear markets; if the trend remains unchanged, a decline is a golden pit!
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