According to Coinworld news, Citic Securities research report states that on July 14 local time, U.S. President Trump expressed in an interview that his shocking remarks impacted the market, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's interview calmed the market. We believe that Trump's 'bad cop' role disturbing the market combined with Mnuchin's 'good cop' role stabilizing the market is a 'clear strategy' of the news-driven market under Trump's leadership in the 'TACO trade.' On issues such as Section 899, U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, and the potential dismissal of Powell, Trump's comments have brought negative shocks to the market, and subsequently, Mnuchin has made favorable statements and actions for the market: he called on the U.S. Congress to remove Section 899 from the OBBBA, remained optimistic about reaching a U.S.-Japan tariff agreement before August 1, and advised Trump against dismissing Powell. Mnuchin has played the role of a spokesperson for the Trump administration in the market, and in the face of Trump's sudden 'bad news,' it is important to pay attention to Mnuchin's views on related events, as his remarks may trigger the 'TACO trade.'
Important employment indicators in the U.S. include the number of new non-farm jobs, unemployment rate, number of unemployment claims, and job vacancies. From the multidimensional data on U.S. employment, the U.S. labor market still shows resilience. Although the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. has risen, the employment diffusion index for all private sectors remains in the contraction range for one month, but key indicators such as new non-farm jobs and unemployment rate demonstrate the resilience of U.S. employment, with many data points stabilizing, supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to observe before cutting interest rates. The Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut rates, and the probability of a rate cut in July is low.