1️⃣ ETH is currently being driven by institutions; retail investors are not advised to follow. Many people in the square are saying to look at 4000 and 4800, but I do not recommend continuing to chase long positions at high levels. If you chase long now and get stuck, it could take six months to break even, and you would also need to raise the margin to 1100. If you are doing short-term day trading, you might take a long position and make 100-200 points, but the risk is very high.

2️⃣ Why can ETH now rise back to 3800? It's because the institutions dare not push BTC up anymore; if they do, many retail investors will go bankrupt, and fewer people will dare to play in the crypto circle (if they cut off all at once, how can they cut again next time?). The activity in the crypto circle is clearly not as lively as at the beginning of the year. At the end of January, BTC dropped 10,000 points in one go, and ETH dropped 300-500 points. Many who bought at high levels have exploded and exited the market. I advise players with small funds to manage their losses well and trade in waves, taking 50-100 points and exiting without being greedy.

3️⃣ The technical level for BTC shows that it needs to pull back to around 114400, but last week it consolidated for a week, and the technical aspect seems to indicate a fluctuation instead of a decline. However, if there is no significant pullback, the upward momentum will not be large.

BTC analysis for July 21:

1️⃣ Lowest point 115600, highest point 12330, with a fluctuation of 7700 points. The weekly K-line has shown a doji star, which may indicate a reversal; pay attention to whether a evening star appears this week, as if it does, we may look bearish next week and even next month. The weekly K-line has deviated from the EMA for too long, so it needs to hold down short-term. Therefore, this week we need to pay special attention to the level of 113000!! Currently, from the technical perspective of the weekly K-line, the cost-performance ratio for shorting is the highest, with potential profits of 7000-13000 points! If you continue to chase long positions, the likelihood of getting stuck is very high!!

2️⃣ The daily K-line has already shown a hammer star last week; I mentioned in my daily updates that everyone should short! Those who followed at least made 3000-6000 points. Currently, the daily K has shown a series of doji stars, and although it's a weekend doji star, the bearish signal is still stronger than the bullish signal. Most importantly, the MACD is about to form a death cross, which is a clear signal to enter short!

In summary: This week, the profit-taking space for shorting BTC will be larger, with risks far less than rewards. For the medium to long term, the layout remains primarily short positions.

🎁 BTC medium to long-term layout this week:

Short position entry point 120000 to 121500, stop loss 800 points, target looking at 114400 to 113000.

ETH analysis for July 21:

1️⃣ Lowest point 2930, highest point 3826, with a fluctuation of nearly 900 points. The EMA at the daily K-line level has been forcibly manipulated by large institutions; this week we first look at around 4000, and then the institutions will harvest and push down BTC into a downtrend.

2️⃣ The daily K-line level of 3950 is a strong resistance level; everyone can consider using 20% of their position to short with 100 times leverage at this level. If it gets liquidated above 4850, consider not setting a stop loss; otherwise, set a stop loss at 4150. If it drops, the first level to watch is 3270, and the second level is 3060. Currently, the volume shows a weakening bullish momentum, indicating that even if it rises, it won't rise too much unless institutions push it up strongly.

🎁 Medium to long-term layout this week:

Bulls are not providing entry points; consider taking profits at 3950 for 60-80% of your position, keeping the remaining position as is.

Short position entry point 3950 to 4100, stop loss 100 points, target looking at 3270 to 3060.

Setting a good stop loss is the key to long-term stable profits!!!

Follow Dr. Liang's market trends to avoid getting lost!! Daily updates on intra-day short wave points.