Too many people have asked how to look at $SOL next, so I will give a unified answer one last time.
As early as February of this year, I expressed a bearish view on SOL and took a screenshot of the sol/eth exchange rate to show my strong bearish sentiment. The reason is simple: the dream of getting rich on the SOL chain has been shattered. The meme is over, and SOL's mission has come to an end. SOL rose because of memes, and it will also fall because of memes.
Currently, SOL has fulfilled most of the expectations: high staking rate, high staking interest, high inflation rate, and a strong correlation with the U.S. market.
What propelled it to take off, Pump.fun, is actually just a project with a good idea, but it lacks a real moat, and BSC and Base can learn quickly.
Where can SOL go in the future?
One path is to continue to push in DeFi, eroding ETH's foundational base.
Another is to produce killer applications (like full-chain games).
But both paths are difficult to traverse.
Personally, I am not very optimistic about DeFi; the underlying logic makes it hard for me to believe. As for chain games, the current performance of the SUI chain may even have an advantage over SOL.
So, to summarize:
SOL is now at a crossroads, and its future performance will mirror that of ETH in the first half of a bull market.
Personally, I will not heavily invest, and I definitely will not hold SOL long-term.
