1. Strong bullish trend but accumulation of overbought risks

- ETH has risen over 3% intraday, breaking through the key resistance level of $3700, with a clear short-term bullish trend.

- Contradictory technical signals:

- Positive signals: The 4-hour candlestick shows a "bullish engulfing" pattern, trading volume is increasing, and the MACD histogram shortening indicates enhanced bullish strength.

- Risk signals: The RSI has exceeded 70, entering the overbought zone, indicating the possibility of a pullback; some periods show a divergence between price and volume (price increases but trading volume decreases), reflecting weakened upward momentum.

2. Bearish crisis and institutional arbitrage risks

- Recently, retail investors have pushed up perpetual contract demand through high leverage long positions, while institutions are profiting from the "shorting perpetual contracts + holding spot to hedge" strategy, with funding rates potentially reaching an annualized 10.5%.

- Potential crash risk: If funding rates turn negative or the market shifts, institutional arbitrage positions may withdraw, potentially causing a sharp decrease in liquidity, leading to a chain liquidation. ETH, due to its higher leverage, may face greater downside risk than BTC.

---

📊 Operational strategy and key price levels

🟢 Bullish strategy (cautious participation, strict stop-loss required)

Entry timing and price levels:

- Ideal support zone: $3550-3580 (daily MA7 moving average + previous high converting to support), can build positions in batches.

- Aggressive long: If it holds above $3700 and breaks through $3715 with volume, can follow in light positions, targeting $3775-3800.

- Target profit-taking levels:

- Short-term target $3640-3684 (previous high resistance).

- After breaking $3715, look for $3775-3800.

- Stop-loss settings: Below $3540 (below support) or 3%-5% stop-loss on positions.