"Is it time to buy Ethereum now?" - Recently, this type of question has frequently appeared in the market, reflecting the confusion of investors. In fact, rather than getting tangled in the absolute highs and lows of the price, it is better to focus on the key indicator of 'the proportion of profitable supply', which can more objectively reveal the current risks and opportunities in the market.

I. Current market risk signals: 95% proportion of profitable supply

As of July 18, 2025, the proportion of profitable supply of Ethereum reached 95%, meaning that currently, 95% of the circulating Ethereum is in a profitable state and has entered a short-term risk zone. The important significance of this data is:

Profit-taking pressure risk: When the vast majority of holders are profitable, the market is prone to concentrated selling. For example, in March, May, and December 2024, after this indicator entered a similar range, Ethereum experienced phase pullbacks.

The divergence between price and risk: Although the current price is at a stage high (3693 USD), the high proportion of profitable supply more directly reflects the overheated market sentiment. Historical data shows that when this indicator exceeds 90%, the probability of a short-term pullback significantly increases.

II. Historical comparison: The risk difference between 53% and 95%

On June 22, 2025, Ethereum pulled back to 2230 USD, at that time the proportion of profitable supply was 53%, and its risk characteristics were completely different from those now:

At that time, nearly half of the chips were in a loss state, market selling pressure was relatively dispersed, and the risk was significantly lower than now.

The logic of entry timing differs: If the future price is higher than the current level but the proportion of profitable supply is lower (e.g., falls below 50%), the risk will significantly decrease. For example, suppose Ethereum first rises to 10,000 USD and then adjusts to 7,000 USD after a high turnover; at this point, the proportion of profitable supply may drop below 50%, making the entry risk lower than the current combination of "3693 USD + 95% profitable supply".

III. Core logic: Data is more important than price

The misleading nature of price fluctuations: Simply looking at high or low prices cannot accurately reflect market risk. For instance, in February 2025, the price of Ethereum broke through 3600 USD, only to pull back to 2230 USD later, while changes in the proportion of profitable supply more clearly revealed the turning point of market sentiment.

The essence of the proportion of profitable supply: This indicator reflects the cost distribution among market holders. When the ratio is too high, most investors have made profits, and the market lacks the continued momentum to push prices higher, making it easy for a 'bullish to bearish' sentiment reversal to occur.

IV. The dialectical relationship between short-term risks and long-term trends

The inevitability of short-term consolidation: The current 95% proportion of profitable supply indicates that the short-term market profit effect has peaked, and it is likely to need time to consolidate, which may manifest as price fluctuations, shrinking trading volume, or slight pullbacks.

The independence of long-term trends: Short-term risk points do not represent the end of the trend. The fundamentals of Ethereum (such as the staking ratio of 29.3% and ETF inflows reaching a historical second-high) still support its long-term value. For example, after Meitu Inc. sold all its cryptocurrencies in December 2024, Ethereum still achieved a significant increase in the first half of 2025.

V. Investor decision-making suggestions

Matching risk tolerance: Investors with strong risk tolerance can pay attention to opportunities when the proportion of profitable supply falls below 70%; conservative investors are advised to wait until the indicator drops below 50% before considering entry.

Position management strategy: Regardless of when to enter the market, a staggered position-building strategy should be used to avoid overly concentrating investment at a single price level. For example, funds can be divided into 3-5 parts and gradually increased as the proportion of profitable supply decreases by 10%.

Dynamically track key indicators: In addition to the proportion of profitable supply, also pay attention to Ethereum's on-chain activity (such as daily average trading volume, number of active addresses), changes in staking volume, and macro policy trends (such as the impact of U.S. stablecoin regulatory legislation).

Conclusion

The current proportion of profitable supply in the Ethereum market has entered a short-term risk zone, and investors need to be cautious of the pullback risk brought by profit-taking pressure, but this does not mean the end of the long-term trend. Investors with strong risk tolerance can gradually build positions after the proportion of profitable supply falls below 70%; conservative investors are advised to wait until the indicator drops below 50% before entering. Regardless of the strategy adopted, dynamically tracking data and formulating trading plans based on one's own situation is key to steady profits in the cryptocurrency market.#ETH