GENIUS Stablecoin Bill: Our Five Distinct Core Views
1️⃣ This is a driver for 'Digital Dollar Hegemony', not just a regulatory framework
The essence of the GENIUS bill is to provide an 'official channel' for USD stablecoins, enabling compliant issuers authorized by the Treasury to build a 'civilian version of the digital dollar' system, bypassing the lengthy processes of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). It is an experiment in the globalization of the dollar 2.0.
📌 Core Judgment: Stablecoins will become a new tool for the expansion of the dollar globally, serving geopolitical financial strategies.
2️⃣ Decentralized stablecoins will be marginalized, with compliance high walls creating a 'licensing moat'
The bill sets extremely high entry barriers, reserve requirements, and compliance processes, almost blocking the survival space for 'algorithmic stablecoins' like DAI and Frax. The future stablecoin landscape will concentrate on several licensed giants (like PayPal and Circle), forming a 'regulatory oligopoly'.
📌 Core Judgment: This is not regulatory inclusion of innovation, but rather a clearing-style reshuffle.
3️⃣ The U.S. Treasury will dominate 'digital currency issuance rights', sidelining the Federal Reserve
This is a rare opportunity for the Treasury to lead financial infrastructure, potentially challenging the functions of the Federal Reserve. The boundaries between fiscal and monetary policy are blurred, which may lead to long-term imbalances in financial policy coordination.
📌 Core Judgment: The 'digital transformation' of the dollar will no longer be led by central banks, but driven by a Treasury + technology alliance.
4️⃣ Technical 'neutrality' is an illusion, with regulatory preferences dominating the technical route
Although the bill claims technical neutrality, only on-chain protocols that are auditable, freezeable, and traceable will be allowed for compliance. Chains that emphasize privacy, anonymity, and censorship resistance (like Monero and Zcash) will be systematically excluded.
📌 Core Judgment: Regulatory compliance will reshape the 'value hierarchy' of blockchain ecological technologies.
5️⃣ A 'stablecoin cold war' will emerge globally, triggering currency sovereignty countermeasures
If compliant USD stablecoins are massively exported to emerging markets, they will inevitably undermine local fiat currency powers, causing panic and policy resistance from central banks. In the future, we may see digital yuan and digital euro accelerating international promotion, even forming a 'multi-stablecoin camp' in opposition.
📌 Core Judgment: The stablecoin war will become the new front in the currency war.
