Current situation (July 20, 2025):
- Price: ~0.20–0.22 USD (based on current data, CoinMarketCap, MEXC).
- Context: HIVE is the native token of the Hive blockchain, launched in March 2020 as a fork of Steem. It is a decentralized platform based on Graphene for social networks, dApps, and content (Web3), focusing on scalability, low entry barriers, and tokenization (Smart Media Tokens). Market capitalization: ~100–110 million USD (rank ~400–450). Trading volume: ~15–25 million USD/24h. Circulating supply: ~476.3 million HIVE, with no fixed maximum (inflation ~1–9% annually). The price has fallen ~94% from ATH (3.41 USD, November 2021), but has risen 0.5–12% over the month (@MEXC, @CoinGecko). TVL: ~10–20 million USD.
Technical forecast for 2026 (based on analytics):
- Prices:
- Optimistic: 0.42–0.58 USD (growth of 100–170%) in a bull market and Web3 growth.
- Neutral: 0.24–0.42 USD (growth of 20–100%).
- Pessimistic: 0.03–0.17 USD during correction or regulatory restrictions.
- Levels:
- Support: 0.18–0.20 USD, 0.12–0.15 USD.
- Resistance: 0.25–0.30 USD, 0.40–0.50 USD.
- Trend: Mixed. Daily chart bullish (50 MA above 200 MA, RSI ~54), weekly neutral (RSI ~30–70, MACD neutral). Break above 0.30 USD may signal growth, drop below 0.18 USD — correction. RSI above 30 indicates lack of overselling.
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Social network: Hive Blog and dApps (Splinterlands, LeoFinance) attract users (8 million+ accounts).
- Partnerships: Binance, MEXC, Huobi, Chainlink. Integration with Web3 projects (@Hive_io).
- Tokenomics: Content rewards, staking (APR ~3–10%), deflationary mechanisms through burning.
- Community: Positive on X (@Hive_io, @AltCryptoGems) — expectations of growth to $0.58 with Web3 adoption.
- BTC Halving (2024): supports altcoins in 2025–2026.
- Innovations: Smart Media Tokens, low fees, scalability for social games and DeFi.
- Risks:
- Regulation: SEC may classify HIVE as a security.
- Volatility: low market capitalization (~110 million USD) is vulnerable to whales.
- Competition: Steem, Reddit (Web2), Lens Protocol in Web3.
- Unlocks/inflation: annual inflation (~1–9%) may pressure the price.
- Pessimism: WalletInvestor and TradingBeast predict a drop to $0.03–0.09 USD by 2026, considering HIVE a poor investment.
Recommendation:
- For investors: Buy on corrections to 0.18–0.20 USD, stop below 0.12 USD. Target: 0.40–0.50 USD. Staking (APR ~3–10%) for income.
- For traders: Buy on break above 0.30 USD, target 0.40–0.50 USD. Sell below 0.18 USD, target 0.12–0.15 USD.
- Risk: 0.5–1% of deposit due to high volatility, low liquidity, and regulatory risks.
Risks: Regulation, competition, inflation, whale manipulation, decline in interest in Web3, drop in BTC/ETH.
