People who trade over long periods have almost all encountered this pit: clearly feeling it's the bottom, yet going in heavily only to see it keep falling; thinking it's the top and clearing out, only to miss the entire upward trend. Ultimately, it's not that the technique is lacking but rather that there's a lack of a strategy that can 'control the hands.' Today, I'll break down the long-term profit principles I've used for 5 years, especially the practical applications of Martingale dollar-cost averaging and grid strategies. Understanding this can save you 3 years of detours.
First, Martingale + dollar-cost averaging: turning 'bottom fishing' into a math problem.
Many people trip up with dollar-cost averaging: either buying at high points or being afraid to add when prices fall. In fact, integrating the 'Martingale strategy' into dollar-cost averaging can allow the position to automatically adapt to the market — this isn't gambler-style adding; it's using mathematical logic to average down costs.
The principle is simple: first set a benchmark, like investing 1000 yuan in Bitcoin weekly. For every $1000 increase in price, reduce the investment amount by 5% (if it rises to $38,000, invest 950 yuan); for every $1000 decrease, increase the investment amount by 5% (if it falls to $36,000, invest 1050 yuan).
The beauty of doing this lies in buying less when the price rises to avoid chasing highs, and buying more when it falls to quietly pick up bargains. In 2022, when Bitcoin dropped from $40,000 to $15,000, I used this strategy for dollar-cost averaging, and my holding cost was 23% lower than 'foolishly buying every month.' But there's a prerequisite: only invest in mainstream coins that won't go to zero (like Bitcoin and Ethereum), and the amount of funds must be sufficient — the core of Martingale is 'the more it falls, the more you add.' If funds are insufficient, it's easy to cut off supply at the bottom.
Don't blindly believe in the nonsense of 'never losing money.' The key to this trick is 'selecting the right assets + having enough capital to withstand.' Avoid long-tail altcoins at all costs; if they go to zero, no strategy will matter.
Second, grid strategy optimization: the secret to earning 40% more in a volatile market.
Holding Bitcoin spot and earning too little interest while wanting to act but fearing selling too soon? The optimized grid strategy can double the capital utilization rate.
Ordinary grids often fail in one-sided markets: selling off when the price rises out of the range and getting stuck when it falls out of the range. I changed it to a combination of 'ETH/BTC + infinite grid,' which perfectly solved this problem.
The power of infinite grids lies in having no 'top' limitations. For example, starting at 20,000 USDT/BTC, selling half when it rises to 40,000, and holding the other half; selling a quarter again when it rises to 80,000, always retaining chips in hand to avoid missing the major upward trends.
Choosing the ETH/BTC trading pair is even smarter: it reflects the relative strength of Ethereum and Bitcoin — in a bull market, ETH often outperforms BTC, with the exchange rate fluctuating upwards; in a bear market, BTC is more resilient, with the exchange rate fluctuating downwards. This kind of 'cyclical fluctuation' perfectly matches the 'buy low, sell high' of infinite grids. During last year's market, I used this trick to earn an additional 42% during the volatile period, without missing the major upward trends of ETH and BTC.
But remember: grids are suitable for volatile markets; during a one-sided crash, you should cut losses when necessary. It can only help you reduce losses, not eliminate risks.
Third, want to become a trading expert? First accomplish these 3 things.
Long-term trading is not about technique but rather about 'survival quality.' I've seen too many people with perfect technical analysis fail due to mindset issues. True experts possess these three traits:
First, look at the market without emotions. No matter how explosive the news is or how fierce others shout, only look at the data and signals — follow the strategy if it fits, wait if it doesn't. During last year's FTX collapse, how many people panicked and cut losses? I focused on the 200-week moving average; as long as it didn't break, I stayed put and ended up picking up bargains.
Second, let the plan make decisions for you. Before I open a position, I always write down clearly 'how much to buy, where the stop-loss is, and how to take profits in steps.' When the market moves, I execute according to the plan; if it doesn't, I do what I need to do. Last year, I waited 3 months for Bitcoin to break through $30,000, spending my days drinking tea and reading books. On the day of the breakout, I decisively entered without panic.
Third, accept 'imperfection.' No strategy can make 100% profits; allow yourself to cut losses and accept earning less. Some people always dwell on 'selling early and missing out on 100,000,' but I care more about 'every trade being within the rules' — over the long term, the rules will help you earn back far more than 'earning less.'
The core of long-term trading is not how much profit you can make but whether you can 'survive' in each cycle. The crypto market is not short on opportunities, but it's lacking people who can continuously participate in these opportunities.#Chainbase上线币安 #加密立法新纪元
