At the beginning: Stop blindly believing in 'fundamentals', the core of retail investors making money is 'understanding K-lines'.
When I first started trading, I was like a 'research student': flipping through financial reports every day, watching the news, investing heavily when good news came out, and cutting losses when bad news appeared. The result? I lost the money I had saved to buy a house after 3 years - it wasn't until later that I understood: retail investors relying on fundamentals to make money is like using a kitchen knife to chop down a big tree; it's not that the tool is bad, it's that you simply don't have the strength.
Now I can achieve stable profits, not because I suddenly understood 'advanced theories', but because I realized after falling that for ordinary people, technical analysis is the 'tool for making a living'. Today, I'll lay out the biggest detours I've taken and a set of 'counterattack strategies' that small funds can also follow, helping you avoid 5 years of unnecessary suffering.
One, I once thought 'fundamentals = truth', until I lost everything and understood: retail investors cannot afford to play many people just entering the market are brainwashed by 'value investing', researching 'how strong certain coin technology is' and 'how good the project prospects are', but the more they research, the more they lose. It's not that fundamentals are useless; it's that retail investors' 'fundamentals' are all 'second-hand information', already played out by institutions.
What you see as 'good news' might be what others want you to see: A certain coin announces 'collaboration with major institutions', you excitedly buy in, unaware that this is the market maker's 'last push before offloading'. I fell into this trap in 2019: a certain public chain coin announced good news saying 'will list on a major exchange', I invested heavily, only to see it plummet 70% on listing day - later I found out that the so-called 'good news' was a 'press release' bought by the market maker.
Retail investors lack resources for 'real research': Buffett said 'only invest in what you understand', but do you understand SpaceX? Do you understand semiconductors? Institutions can use satellites to measure supermarket foot traffic and drones to photograph oil storage tanks; what about you? At most, you can look at free news, but this information has long been digested by the market.
'Holding long term' for retail investors is 'chronic suicide': Large funds can wait 10 years for a double; can you? Mortgage payments need to be made, car loans need to be repaid, and you panic if it drops 30%, unable to wait for 'value return'. In 2018, I held a certain 'value coin' for 5 years, with 3 halving events in between; when I finally cut losses, it was still lying in the 'value trap' - for retail investors, 'long term' often means 'long term being stuck'.
The truth: Fundamentals can tell you 'whether a certain coin should rise', but won't tell you 'whether you should buy now'. For retail investors, it can at most be a 'compass', not a 'steering wheel'. Second, after turning to technical analysis, I understood: K-lines never lie; it's just that you can't understand. After discarding fundamentals, I focused all my energy on K-lines and suddenly realized: whether it's good news or bad news, in the end, it all turns into the rise and fall of K-lines. The benefits of technical analysis for retail investors can be summed up in 3 points:
Clear entry and exit points, no hesitation in stop losses and take profits: If a certain coin shows a 'engulfing pattern' (a large bullish candle engulfing the previous few days' bearish candles), that is a buy signal; if it breaks the bottom of the pattern, no matter the reason, immediately cut losses. In 2021, I avoided 3 crashes on ETH using this trick, with a maximum loss of 8% each time, but capturing one rise earned me 30% - which is 10 times more reliable than guessing 'will the good news materialize'.
Can understand 'what the main force is doing': When the market maker is accumulating, the K-line will repeatedly consolidate at low levels ('grinding' to make you cut losses); when offloading, a sudden large bullish candle will appear ('inducing' you to buy). These signals will not be told by fundamentals, but the K-line makes it clear. Last year, a certain altcoin consolidated for 3 months, I watched the K-line and bought in at the breakout, making 50% in 2 weeks, while those waiting for 'good news announcements' all bought at high prices.
No need to 'bet on news', only make 'understandable money': A certain coin suddenly has good news and rises by 10%, would you dare to chase? With technical analysis, there's no need to guess: look at the volume - a significant increase in volume is a 'real rise', you can follow; without volume is a 'false rise', better run away. I relied on 'volume breakout + K-line patterns' last year, capturing 6 short trades, making a profit 5 times, while friends who chased news often lost more than they earned.
Key reminder: Technical analysis is not a 'cure-all', it cannot manage 'black swans' (such as sudden policy prohibitions). But for retail investors, it is the 'most cost-effective tool' - at least it can help you avoid losing big money in 90% of normal market conditions. Third, a 'dumb method' for small funds to reverse: rolling 100U to 10,000U relies on these 3 steps. Many people think 'small money can't make big money', but the advantage of small funds is 'flexibility'. I started with 100U and rolled it to 10,000U in half a year using this strategy, the core is 'not greedy, first protect life':
First stage: Use 100U to 'break through three barriers', try and error without regret.
Each time, only use 100U to buy 'hot coins' (such as those that have recently risen sharply, like AI, public chains, etc.), set a '20% take profit, 10% stop loss'. The goal is simple: 100U → 200U → 400U → 800U.
At most, try 3 times; if you lose all 3 times, stop (indicating that the recent market is not suitable for you); as long as you succeed once, continue to roll with the profits. In 2023, I used this trick; I made 20% on my first purchase of SOL, 30% on my second purchase of ETH, and 25% on my third purchase of ARB, rolling from 100U to 880U in 3 months - the key is 'losing doesn't hurt, gaining can accumulate'.Second stage: After reaching 1000U, divide into 3 types of orders to 'earn steadily'.
Once the principal reaches 1000U, do not go all in; divide into 3 types of orders:Ultra-short orders (15-minute level): Only trade Bitcoin and Ethereum, using 10% of the principal (100U) each time; sell when it rises 10% and run when it falls 5%. For example, if BTC shows a 'bullish candle with volume' on the 15-minute chart, then take a small position to try; if you make a profit, exit - accumulating small amounts can lead to an additional 10%-20% profit each month.
Strategy orders (4-hour level): Use 10x leverage, invest 15U each time, and take profits to regularly invest in Bitcoin. For example, use 15U for a 4-hour long ETH order; if you make 3U, withdraw it and regularly invest in BTC once a week - this way, you earn short-term profits while accumulating mainstream coins, both without conflict.
Trend orders (daily level): Wait for coins that have 'consolidated after a large drop'; for example, if a coin dropped 50% and consolidated for 1 month without making a new low, buy with 30% of the principal, setting a 1:3 risk-reward ratio (take profit at 30%, stop loss at 10%). Last year, when BTC consolidated from 15,000 to 20,000, I bought a trend order and made 60% in 3 months - you don't need many of these orders; capturing just one can sustain you for half a year.
Ironclad rules for taking profits and cutting losses: Better to earn less than to be deeply trapped.
Don't be greedy on ultra-short orders for 'a little more rise'; a 10% profit is enough; for strategy orders with high leverage, loss of 20% must mean exit; for trend orders, hold firm until the stop loss, but once it hits the stop loss line, even if 'you feel a rebound is coming', you must cut losses - the lifeline for small funds is 'the principal cannot be completely lost'; as long as the money is still there, there is hope.
Four, the pitfalls retail investors should avoid the most: Don't let 'small cleverness' ruin your account.
I have seen too many people use this strategy to make money, only to lose it back due to two mistakes:
Don't blindly trust 'expert indicators': what 'high win rate combinations' and 'exclusive formulas' are mostly scams. I have tried dozens of indicators, and finally found that the most useful ones are MACD + RSI - simple and withstand practical tests. Newcomers should master these two before randomly trying 'fancy tricks'.
Half position operation, always leave a backup: Those who go all in laugh when it rises and cry when it falls; those who operate on half positions can buy more when it falls and add positions when it rises. Last year, when BTC plummeted 10%, those who went all in faced liquidation, while I managed to buy more at the bottom and not only did I not lose, but I also made an additional 20% - position management is the 'lifesaver', not just technique.
Conclusion: What are your trading detours?
From losing a house to stable profits, my biggest realization is: trading earns not 'knowledge money', but 'cognitive money' - acknowledging that you are a retail investor, using technical analysis well, not being greedy or gambling, is the key to longevity.#Strategy增持比特币 #稳定币监管风暴
