#AltcoinSeasonLoading 【THE 0.4117】After the plunge, is it time to buy the dip? POC 0.455 above has huge selling pressure, LVN 0.30-0.35 becomes the only "escape pod"!
Quick overview in one sentence: THE 24h contract has a net outflow of 2.79 million, spot has a net inflow of 550,000, the long-short ratio has dropped sharply to 1.46, and the price has fallen to the lower edge of the Bollinger Band at 0.40, RSI at 35.7 is in the oversold area; below, the LVN gap at 0.30-0.35 + spot accumulation may provide a short-term rebound, but the 130M large sell orders above POC 0.455 suppress it. If it falls below 0.388, it will trigger a stop-loss, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.2, light positions for quick entry and exit.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchor: POC 0.455 (130M transactions, Up/Down=62%:38%, buyers slightly dominate)
2. HVN buffer:
• 0.415-0.420 (110M)——the first resistance above the current price, with multiple failed rebounds during the day
• 0.423-0.428 (108M)——secondary resistance, if broken with volume, can look up to POC
3. LVN gap:
• 0.30-0.35 (transaction volume <12M)——spot has a net inflow of 8.66M in the past 5 days, suspected low absorption area, can go long on a pullback
4. 70% transaction volume zone: 0.402-0.584, current price is at the lower edge, theoretically oversold.
Momentum verification
• Up Volume above POC is 62%, but contract OI increased by 5.94% in 24h and long-short ratio decreased by 22%, with shorts dominating the increased positions
• The lower edge of the Bollinger Band in 1h is at 0.400, MA200 is at 0.384, with a deviation of 7.1%, indicating a short-term mean reversion demand
• The difference between the buy and sell orders is +3280 USDT, with slightly more near-end buy orders, but distant end has 369k sell orders forming a liquidity trap
Market cycle
Mid-term is still at the end of a bear market rebound: after a 73% increase over 14 days, there is now a rapid pullback, the contract funding rate turns positive but OI growth slows down, considered a stage of long position reduction.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: current price 0.411-0.415 pullback to LVN 0.388-0.392 (MA200+VAL) light long, stop-loss at 0.385, target 0.428/0.455, risk-reward ratio 2.2
Stable: wait for a volume breakout above 0.420 HVN and Up Volume >65% before chasing long, stop-loss at 0.415
Conservative: reverse to short after falling below 0.388, stop-loss at 0.393, target 0.350
Risk control
• Single trade risk 1%, leverage ≤3x
• If USDT margin OI ratio >35% or spot net inflow turns negative, exit immediately
• Avoid high volatility periods (UTC 12-14 hours)
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