On July 14, Bitcoin (BTC) – the world's leading cryptocurrency – recorded a new all-time high (ATH) at $123,091, marking an important milestone in the current growth cycle. However, just a few days later, the price of BTC experienced a slight correction, leading many investors to wonder: Is this just a temporary setback or a sign of a shift towards the 'altseason' phase – when altcoins shine?

Whales Start to Move – Sign of Taking Profit or Shifting Portfolio?

Data from the renowned blockchain analysis platform Glassnode on July 18 shows a notable trend: the amount of Bitcoin being moved to exchanges by whales – those large wallet addresses holding thousands of BTC – is increasing sharply.

Specifically, the 7-day SMA of the amount of BTC transferred from whale wallets to exchanges has approached 12,000 BTC, one of the highest levels since the beginning of 2025. Notably, the last time this level was recorded was in November 2024, just before the cryptocurrency market entered a strong growth phase.

In the crypto world, when large wallets transfer BTC to exchanges, there are usually two possibilities:

  • Take profit when the price peaks.

  • Rebalance the portfolio, shifting from BTC to higher beta assets – like altcoins – to seek greater profits.

Based on the current market trend, the second possibility is favored more by experts.

Altcoins Rise While Bitcoin Cools Down

While Bitcoin only recorded a modest increase of 0.27% in the past week, many large altcoins had breakthrough increases:

  • Ethereum (ETH): +19.98%

  • XRP: +25.98%

  • Solana (SOL): +8.86%

This reflects a familiar phenomenon in the crypto market – 'altseason', which is the season of altcoins. This is the time when investors start to shift profits from BTC to other coins, especially those with mid to low market caps, with the expectation of generating higher returns.

Altseason Index: Not Confirmed Yet But Approaching

According to CoinMarketCap, the Altseason Index currently stands at 36/100. This index reflects the extent to which altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

  • Index < 50: Bitcoin is still leading the market.

  • Index > 75: An official altseason has begun.

This indicates that although altcoins have shown signs of recovery, altseason has not truly exploded yet. Investors need to closely monitor cash flow movements, the decline of the BTC dominance index, and the growth spreading to mid-cap and low-cap altcoins.

Conclusion: The Shift is Starting

The price correction of BTC after the ATH, along with strong activity from whales and the breakout of altcoins, suggests a new phase of capital flow shifting in the market. Although altseason has not officially started by technical definition, early signals are clear.

Investors should:

  • Closely monitor the Altseason Index, BTC Dominance, and the movements of large wallets.

  • Consider rebalancing the portfolio, especially into altcoins with strong fundamentals and mid-cap.

  • Avoid short-term FOMO – the market may correct before rising stronger.