Tim Draper – investor and co-founder of the venture capital fund Draper Associates – believes that macroeconomic factors such as the weakening of the US dollar (USD) are diminishing the impact of the Bitcoin halving cycle, which has long been the source of boom and bust cycles in the market since 2009.
"In the next 10 to 20 years, the dollar will no longer exist," Draper shared in an interview with Cointelegraph. "The world is changing, and we are witnessing that unfold. We are in the midst of an anthropological leap," he added.
Draper noted that more and more investors see Bitcoin as a 'safety valve' against issues of poor governance, distrust in the banking system, fiat inflation, and geopolitical tensions – all factors driving the acceptance of this limited-supply digital currency globally. He stated:
"The impact of halvings may diminish if Bitcoin continues to rise against the dollar as it is now, as this trend may persist. While it will still be affected by the four-year cycle, I believe the impact will weaken. A macroeconomic driver will lead Bitcoin, and that will have a greater influence than the halving itself."
The question of whether the four-year market cycle still holds value is still up for debate. Some, like Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca, believe that this cycle is not dead yet, while others assert that Bitcoin has matured and become a macro asset, no longer entirely reliant on traditional market dynamics.
Bitcoin and 'hard money' assets will benefit from the weakening of the USD.
In February, Bitwise analyst Jeff Park predicted that Bitcoin would rise in price and be more widely adopted globally due to increasing geopolitical tensions, monetary inflation, a weakening USD, and a return of protectionist trade policies.
The Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized that USD-pegged stablecoins are key to maintaining the global reserve status of the dollar. Putting the USD on the blockchain allows anyone with a phone and crypto wallet to contribute to the demand for this currency.
However, Max Keiser – a staunch supporter of Bitcoin – argues that USD stablecoins are merely a temporary solution for a dollar that is gradually losing its standing, and in the future will be surpassed by tokens backed by gold and BTC.