#write2earn🌐💹 | Analysis of on-chain metrics
As you all know, most participants judge the market by emotions — fear, greed, memes, and influencers. But we have charts that do not lie. On-chain is the trail left by money. And money rarely lies 🎙
Looking at the metrics, I can say that there is no significant overheating and euphoria, which can only indicate that the growth has just begun, and we are currently in the preparation phase for the next leap ⚙️
➡️ The market is not overheated yet
This week, the spot price of BTC on Binance remained higher than that of derivatives (futures). This means that the crowd is not leveraging. There is no euphoria. FOMO has not started. Historically, when derivatives began to hurriedly 'catch up' with the spot (a positive spread appears) — a real parabola would begin 💪 Greed always kicks in later.
➡️ MVRV for short-term holders indicates: there is still growth potential
The STH MVRV metric (market value to invested value ratio for short-term holders) is still below the overheating zone. ➡️ This means that BTC could rise another 20–25% before mass profit-taking begins.
In other words — the market is charged, but it has not shot yet. Confirmation of preparation, not finale.
➡️ The path to new highs remains open
Most short-term indicators are cooled down. This is a rarity at the moment when BTC updates its ATH. ➡️ Usually at such moments the market is already at its limit. Right now — it is not. This could become fuel for a breakout in Q3–Q4 2025.
➡️ Miners have started active selling
Outflow from miners' wallets reached 16,000 BTC — the highest since April. Almost all the volume went to exchanges, indicating a desire to sell. Miners are rational players. They do not panic sell. This is more about profit-taking on strength than panic on weakness.
However, such liquidity outflows can cause short-term corrections or provide fuel for shakeouts to knock out the crowd before the next impulse.
The market is not overheated. It is not speculative, but structural. We see not a spike, but a consolidation of energy. On-chain metrics do not show the final stage of the cycle — rather, a continuing buildup of positions before the next phase shift 📊 Yes, miners are selling. But they do it disciplined — on strength, not on fear.
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