#HumaFinancee The Fed is not rushing with rates: the balance is decreasing, tariffs are pressuring forecasts
Over the week, the Fed's balance shrank by $2.6 billion, but the tough rhetoric remains.
Regional branch heads are betting on patience — inflation is still above the target, and tariffs are creating new uncertainties.
📌 Key signals:
— Hammack: no reason to rush, the impact of tariffs is already being felt
— Collins: inflation by the end of the year — up to 3%, growth and hiring will slow down
— Logan: the monetary policy remains tight, but the rate may be lowered in a weak labor market
— Williams: 2% inflation — only by 2027, the economy slows to 1% growth
— Waller: ready to support a reduction in July, if the data allows
— Goolsbee: tariffs hinder reduction, but a series of positive CPIs could change everything
📊 The futures market is pricing in:
— July 30: Pause
— September 17: -25 b.p.
— October 29: Pause
— December 10: -25 b.p.
— March 18, 2026: -25 b.p.
Current course — patience amid tariffs. Rate reductions are possible, but will be measured and only with confidence in a sustained decline in inflation.
