📌 Current Price & Support

  • BTC is holding near $117,600, a key consolidation zone after peaking around $123,091 on July 14

  • This level is just above immediate support at $117,316 and broader support between $116K–$117K, anchored by the 20‑day EMA near $113,968

⚙️ Technical Indicators

  • RSI (~64): Moderately bullish — room to rally before entering overbought territory

  • MACD: Bullish momentum remains intact despite the recent pullback

  • EMAs: BTC is trading comfortably above all major EMAs (200‑day EMA at ~$97.7K), signaling strong structural support

🎯 Path to $119K–$120K

  • Holding above $117.6K maintains the bullish structure and keeps near‑term resistance levels active.

  • Next resistance zones lie at $121K, then $124K–$126K, before pushing toward $130K

  • A confirmed break above $121K opens the pathway to $124K and beyond

🚥 Risks & Watchpoints

  1. Dealer gamma and volatility (DVOL) have increased suggesting possible short-term consolidation or pullback

  2. Dormant whale movements (e.g., ~17,000 BTC transfer to Galaxy Digital) could trigger volatility

  3. Macro factors : U.S. Dollar strength and regulatory clarity (like the GENIUS/CLARITY Act progression) could impact momentum

TRADE SETUPS ! ‼️‼️‼️

🟢 Bullish Scenario

  • Entry: Buy near $117.6K–$118K on confirmation of bounce (e.g., bullish candle/volume).

  • Stops: Below $116K or 20-day EMA (~$113.9K).

  • Targets:

    1. $121K (primary resistance)

    2. $124–126K (structural overhead)

    3. $130K (longer-term extension)

🔴 Bearish Scenario

  • Trigger: Break below $116K with volume.

  • Targets:

    1. $113K–$114K (200‑day EMA zone)

    2. $109K–$110K (key support breakout area)

Holding $117.6K is critical. As long as that level holds, the path to $119K–$120K is plausible, especially if we see continued institutional ETF inflows and no major macro shocks.

  • Technical structure: intact — supports rally continuation

  • Momentum indicators: positive but not overextended

  • Catalysts: institutional demand, regulatory tailwinds

  • Tail risks: whale movements, USD strength

I believe BTC will bounce to $121K, followed by potential test of $124–126K in the coming weeks, with $130K in sight if momentum holds.

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