📌 Current Price & Support
BTC is holding near $117,600, a key consolidation zone after peaking around $123,091 on July 14
This level is just above immediate support at $117,316 and broader support between $116K–$117K, anchored by the 20‑day EMA near $113,968
⚙️ Technical Indicators
RSI (~64): Moderately bullish — room to rally before entering overbought territory
MACD: Bullish momentum remains intact despite the recent pullback
EMAs: BTC is trading comfortably above all major EMAs (200‑day EMA at ~$97.7K), signaling strong structural support
🎯 Path to $119K–$120K
Holding above $117.6K maintains the bullish structure and keeps near‑term resistance levels active.
Next resistance zones lie at $121K, then $124K–$126K, before pushing toward $130K
A confirmed break above $121K opens the pathway to $124K and beyond
🚥 Risks & Watchpoints
Dealer gamma and volatility (DVOL) have increased suggesting possible short-term consolidation or pullback
Dormant whale movements (e.g., ~17,000 BTC transfer to Galaxy Digital) could trigger volatility
Macro factors : U.S. Dollar strength and regulatory clarity (like the GENIUS/CLARITY Act progression) could impact momentum
TRADE SETUPS ! ‼️‼️‼️
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Entry: Buy near $117.6K–$118K on confirmation of bounce (e.g., bullish candle/volume).
Stops: Below $116K or 20-day EMA (~$113.9K).
Targets:
$121K (primary resistance)
$124–126K (structural overhead)
$130K (longer-term extension)
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Trigger: Break below $116K with volume.
Targets:
$113K–$114K (200‑day EMA zone)
$109K–$110K (key support breakout area)
Holding $117.6K is critical. As long as that level holds, the path to $119K–$120K is plausible, especially if we see continued institutional ETF inflows and no major macro shocks.
Technical structure: intact — supports rally continuation
Momentum indicators: positive but not overextended
Catalysts: institutional demand, regulatory tailwinds
Tail risks: whale movements, USD strength
I believe BTC will bounce to $121K, followed by potential test of $124–126K in the coming weeks, with $130K in sight if momentum holds.